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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 47%, yet in-form Sampdoria provide a compelling counter-argument — this Carrarese vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Carrarese host Sampdoria at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie B games this season, Carrarese have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Stadio dei Marmi, Carrarese have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling in Serie B this season, Sampdoria have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sampdoria — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Carrarese, 1 for Sampdoria and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 2–3 with Sampdoria winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Carrarese in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 48% versus Sampdoria 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 46% | Sampdoria 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.30 xG and Sampdoria 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.905 / defence 0.908 | Sampdoria attack 0.788 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.110. Data: 68 Carrarese games / 68 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Carrarese 47% | Draw 32% | Sampdoria 21%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Sampdoria 4.76. Carrarese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Carrarese at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sampdoria (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 20% | Sampdoria 60% BTTS from recent games.

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