Avellino 3-2 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Avellino vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Avellino and Sudtirol meet at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Avellino's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sudtirol (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Sudtirol arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Avellino 1W, Sudtirol 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Avellino winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Avellino — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avellino 53% versus Sudtirol 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Avellino 50% | Sudtirol 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avellino 0.89 xG and Sudtirol 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avellino attack 0.802 / defence 1.211 | Sudtirol attack 1.014 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.110. Data: 30 Avellino games / 68 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avellino 23% | Draw 31% | Sudtirol 46%. Fair-value odds: Avellino 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Sudtirol 2.17. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Avellino 60% | Sudtirol 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avellino vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avellino 23% | Draw 31% | Sudtirol 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Avellino 0.89 / Sudtirol 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Avellino attack 0.802 / def 1.211 | Sudtirol attack 1.014 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Avellino xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Sudtirol xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avellino vs Sudtirol kick off?
Avellino vs Sudtirol kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What was the final score in Avellino vs Sudtirol?
Avellino 3 - 2 Sudtirol.
Where is Avellino vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What competition is Avellino vs Sudtirol part of?
Avellino vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Avellino vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Avellino a 23% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avellino vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Avellino and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Avellino vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Sudtirol?
Record (1 meetings): Avellino 1W | Draws 0 | Sudtirol 0W.
What form are Avellino and Sudtirol in?
Avellino (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Avellino's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (1.01x) against Avellino's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 30/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
23%
4.36
31%
3.25
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Avellino xG
Total xG
2.25
1.36
Sudtirol xG
4.36
23%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
6%
17.02
19%
5.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 14.3 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avellino vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Avellino and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Avellino and 1.36 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Avellino vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Avellino come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 9D 12L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.27 PPG from 30 outings (8W 14D 8L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Avellino against 1.27 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Avellino's home form reads 6W 4D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (3W 9D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Avellino are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.03 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avellino
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Avellino and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Avellino have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 8W 14D 8L in their last 30 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Avellino at home or Sudtirol away?
Avellino's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Avellino at home: 1.47 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Avellino
0
Draws
0
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Sudtirol?
From 2 meetings on record, Avellino have won 2, Sudtirol have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Avellino and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Avellino 3-2 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Avellino and Sudtirol?
Avellino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Avellino 53%, Sudtirol 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Avellino) and 33% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Avellino have failed to score in 33% of games; Sudtirol in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avellino home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Avellino play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Avellino's recent matches and 53% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Avellino vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Avellino's recent games and 33% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Avellino and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Avellino have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Avellino defy the odds to beat Sudtirol 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Avellino beat Sudtirol 3-2 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 0.89 xG and Sudtirol 1.36 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Avellino beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 0.80 / defence 1.21 against Sudtirol attack 1.01 / defence 0.83, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avellino 23% | Draw 31% | Sudtirol 46%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Avellino win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 50%, Sudtirol 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Avellino's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Avellino 1.20 PPG, Sudtirol 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Avellino win broke the near-deadlock. Avellino (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.