Mantova 3-0 Cesena – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Mantova at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mantova vs Cesena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mantova and Cesena meet at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Mantova (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Mantova are significantly better at Stadio Danilo Martelli than their overall form suggests.
Cesena have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cesena's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Mantova's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cesena's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Mantova 1W, Cesena 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 2–3 with Cesena winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mantova — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cesena — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 57% versus Cesena 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 52% | Cesena 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.44 xG and Cesena 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.023 / defence 1.186 | Cesena attack 0.856 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.126. Data: 68 Mantova games / 68 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 43% | Draw 28% | Cesena 29%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Cesena 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mantova are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mantova if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 60% | Cesena 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 43% | Draw 28% | Cesena 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Mantova 1.44 / Cesena 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.023 / def 1.186 | Cesena attack 0.856 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Mantova (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Cesena xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Cesena kick off?
Mantova vs Cesena kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Cesena?
Mantova 3 - 0 Cesena.
Where is Mantova vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Cesena part of?
Mantova vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 43% chance of winning, Cesena a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Mantova and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Cesena?
Record (3 meetings): Mantova 1W | Draws 0 | Cesena 2W.
What form are Mantova and Cesena in?
Mantova (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Cesena (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mantova's attack at 1.02x the league average against Cesena's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cesena's attack (0.86x) against Mantova's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
43%
2.34
28%
3.52
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.58
1.14
Cesena xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
7%
14.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Mantova and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Mantova and 1.14 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 68 outings, Mantova have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 18W 21D 29L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Cesena's form line: 24W 18D 26L from 68 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Mantova against 1.32 for Cesena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mantova have posted 1.53 PPG from 34 outings (14W 10D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cesena have gone 12W 7D 15L from 34 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mantova are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.21 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Current Season
Cesena
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Cesena in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 18W 21D 29L in their last 68 games (1.10 PPG), while Cesena have gone 24W 18D 26L in their last 68 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Cesena away?
Mantova's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.53 PPG; Cesena away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mantova won 3-0 on 1 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mantova have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cesena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Mantova
0
Draws
2
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Cesena?
From 4 meetings on record, Mantova have won 2, Cesena have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Cesena last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Mantova 3-0 Cesena.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 56%, Cesena 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Mantova) and 44% (Cesena).
On the defensive side: Cesena in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Cesena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Mantova's games and 56% of Cesena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Mantova's recent games and 44% of Cesena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Cesena tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Cesena in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mantova run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cesena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Cesena 3-0 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.44 xG and Cesena 1.14 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mantova beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cesena landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.02 / defence 1.19 against Cesena attack 0.86 / defence 1.06, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 43% | Draw 28% | Cesena 29%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 52%, Cesena 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Cesena's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.10 PPG, Cesena 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Cesena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.