Sampdoria 0-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Venezia (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sampdoria face Venezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Venezia travel to Stadio Luigi Ferraris to take on Sampdoria. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026, 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sampdoria — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sampdoria at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Venezia away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Venezia — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Sampdoria have won 1, Venezia 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1–3 with Venezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Venezia trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 52% versus Venezia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 39% | Venezia 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.15 xG and Venezia 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.917 / defence 1.091 | Venezia attack 1.435 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.128. Venezia have an above-average attack strength of 1.435 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 Sampdoria games / 29 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 24% | Draw 25% | Venezia 51%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Venezia 1.96. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 50% | Venezia 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 24% | Draw 25% | Venezia 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Sampdoria 1.15 / Venezia 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.917 / def 1.091 | Venezia attack 1.435 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Venezia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Venezia xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Venezia kick off?
Sampdoria vs Venezia kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Venezia?
Sampdoria 0 - 0 Venezia.
Where is Sampdoria vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Venezia part of?
Sampdoria vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 24% chance of winning, Venezia a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sampdoria and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Venezia?
Record (5 meetings): Sampdoria 1W | Draws 1 | Venezia 3W.
What form are Sampdoria and Venezia in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Venezia (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sampdoria's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
24%
4.14
25%
4.04
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.92
1.77
Venezia xG
4.14
24%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
4%
24.19
16%
6.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.77 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sampdoria come into this having played 67 games, going 16W 25D 26L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 1.37 PPG from 67 outings (24W 20D 23L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 1.09 PPG, Venezia on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sampdoria's home form reads 13W 11D 9L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Sampdoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.00 points per game from 33 outings (6W 15D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sampdoria are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.37 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Venezia in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 16W 25D 26L in their last 67 games (1.09 PPG), while Venezia have gone 24W 20D 23L in their last 67 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Venezia away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.52 PPG; Venezia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sampdoria's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
2
Draws
3
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Venezia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Sampdoria 0-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 36%, Venezia 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Sampdoria) and 54% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 33% of games; Venezia in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 64% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Sampdoria's recent games and 54% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Venezia tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Venezia in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sampdoria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 30, as Sampdoria and Venezia drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.15 xG and Venezia 1.77 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Venezia landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against Venezia attack 1.44 / defence 0.93, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 24% | Draw 25% | Venezia 51%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 39%, Venezia 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Venezia's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.09 PPG, Venezia 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.