🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Frosinone at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Bari make the trip to Stadio Benito Stirpe to face Frosinone in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Frosinone have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Frosinone's home record at Stadio Benito Stirpe: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe.

Bari (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Bari have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Frosinone against 1.40 for Bari. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Frosinone lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 3–2 with Frosinone winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).

Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 56% versus Bari 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 50% | Bari 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 2.02 xG and Bari 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.255 / defence 0.972 | Bari attack 0.793 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.109. Frosinone carry an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Frosinone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Frosinone games / 68 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Frosinone 63% | Draw 23% | Bari 14%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Bari 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Frosinone (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Frosinone 50% | Bari 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights