Venezia 2-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cosenza make the trip to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to face Venezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 December 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Venezia's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cosenza (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cosenza have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Venezia against 0.90 for Cosenza. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Venezia — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cosenza — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 63% versus Cosenza 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 50% | Cosenza 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.35 xG and Cosenza 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.843 / defence 1.365 | Cosenza attack 0.778 / defence 1.351. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.117. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.351 — this is suppressing Venezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Venezia games / 54 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 39% | Draw 30% | Cosenza 31%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Cosenza 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 70% | Cosenza 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 39% | Draw 30% | Cosenza 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Venezia 1.35 / Cosenza 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.843 / def 1.365 | Cosenza attack 0.778 / def 1.351 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Venezia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Cosenza xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Cosenza kick off?
Venezia vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 December 2022 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Cosenza?
Venezia 2 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Venezia vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Cosenza part of?
Venezia vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 39% chance of winning, Cosenza a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Venezia and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Cosenza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Venezia and Cosenza in?
Venezia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Cosenza (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.84) and Cosenza's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.78x) against Venezia's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 16/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
39%
2.57
30%
3.33
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.54
1.19
Cosenza xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
8%
12.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Venezia and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Venezia and 1.19 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Venezia's recent record stands at 10W 13D 31L from 54 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 13W 16D 25L across 54 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.80 PPG for Venezia against 1.02 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 4W 6D 16L from 26 games — 0.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 1W 11D 14L across 26 trips, a 0.54 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Venezia are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.98 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 10W 13D 31L in their last 54 games (0.80 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 13W 16D 25L in their last 54 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Cosenza away?
Venezia's home record (0.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 0.69 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Venezia
2
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Cosenza?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Cosenza have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when Cosenza 4-2 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 69%, Cosenza 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Venezia) and 38% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Venezia have failed to score in 27% of games; Cosenza in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Cosenza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Venezia's games and 58% of Cosenza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Venezia's recent games and 38% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Cosenza tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Cosenza 2-0 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.35 xG and Cosenza 1.19 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cosenza landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.84 / defence 1.36 against Cosenza attack 0.78 / defence 1.35, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 39% | Draw 30% | Cosenza 31%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 50%, Cosenza 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Cosenza's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 0.80 PPG, Cosenza 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.