Modena 2-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Modena and Venezia meet at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 8 December 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Modena's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena have gone 3W 1D 3L this season (7 games, 1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Venezia have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Modena's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Venezia's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Modena — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Venezia — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Modena 60% and Venezia 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 53% | Venezia 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.23 xG and Venezia 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.054 / defence 1.176 | Venezia attack 0.931 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.111. Data: 15 Modena games / 15 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 35% | Draw 30% | Venezia 35%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Venezia 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Modena 57% | Venezia 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 35% | Draw 30% | Venezia 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Modena 1.23 / Venezia 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.054 / def 1.176 | Venezia attack 0.931 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Venezia xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Venezia kick off?
Modena vs Venezia kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 8 December 2022 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Venezia?
Modena 2 - 2 Venezia.
Where is Modena vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Venezia part of?
Modena vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 35% chance of winning, Venezia a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Modena and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Venezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Modena and Venezia in?
Modena (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Venezia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Modena's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.93x) against Modena's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
35%
2.83
30%
3.37
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Modena xG
Total xG
2.44
1.22
Venezia xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.6 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Modena and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Modena and 1.22 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Modena's recent record stands at 6W 2D 7L from 15 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 8L across 15 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Modena against 1.00 for Venezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Modena have managed 3W 1D 3L from 7 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Venezia's away record stands at 3W 2D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.00 PPG overall record — Venezia travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Modena are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.07 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Venezia in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Venezia in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 6W 2D 7L in their last 15 games (1.33 PPG), while Venezia have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Venezia away?
Venezia's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.43 PPG; Venezia away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 10 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Venezia won 5-0 on 1 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Modena
2
Draws
3
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 1, Venezia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2026, when Venezia 0-2 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 57%, Venezia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Modena) and 29% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Modena have failed to score in 29% of games; Venezia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Modena's games and 57% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Modena's recent games and 29% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Venezia tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Venezia in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena and Venezia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena and Venezia finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.23 xG and Venezia 1.22 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.05 / defence 1.18 against Venezia attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 35% | Draw 30% | Venezia 35%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 53%, Venezia 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.33 PPG, Venezia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Venezia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.