Frosinone 0-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Frosinone host Pisa at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 December 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Frosinone have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Pisa have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Frosinone at 2.30 PPG versus Pisa's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Frosinone, 1 for Pisa and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Pisa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Frosinone trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Pisa trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 46% versus Pisa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 50% | Pisa 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.46 xG and Pisa 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.172 / defence 0.763 | Pisa attack 1.025 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.074. Frosinone's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Frosinone games / 54 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 50% | Draw 31% | Pisa 20%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Pisa 5.00. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Frosinone 40% | Pisa 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Dec 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 50% | Draw 31% | Pisa 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Frosinone 1.46 / Pisa 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.172 / def 0.763 | Pisa attack 1.025 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Pisa xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Pisa kick off?
Frosinone vs Pisa kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 11 December 2022 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Pisa?
Frosinone 0 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Frosinone vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Pisa part of?
Frosinone vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 50% chance of winning, Pisa a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Frosinone and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Pisa?
Record (2 meetings): Frosinone 1W | Draws 0 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Frosinone and Pisa in?
Frosinone (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Pisa (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Frosinone's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
50%
2.01
31%
3.24
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.30
0.84
Pisa xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
5%
22.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.84 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Frosinone come into this having played 54 games, going 26W 15D 13L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 1.48 PPG from 54 outings (20W 20D 14L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Frosinone on 1.72 PPG, Pisa on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Frosinone's home form reads 16W 7D 3L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Frosinone are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 1.15 points per game from 26 outings (7W 9D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Frosinone are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.28 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Pisa in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 26W 15D 13L in their last 54 games (1.72 PPG), while Pisa have gone 20W 20D 14L in their last 54 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Pisa away?
Frosinone's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 2.12 PPG; Pisa away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Pisa in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Frosinone and Pisa runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Frosinone's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Frosinone
2
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 2, Pisa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2025, when Pisa 1-0 Frosinone.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 42%, Pisa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Frosinone) and 35% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Pisa in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Frosinone's recent matches and 54% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Frosinone's recent games and 35% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Pisa tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Pisa in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Frosinone's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone and Pisa finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.46 xG and Pisa 0.84 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Frosinone fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Pisa landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.17 / defence 0.76 against Pisa attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 50% | Draw 31% | Pisa 20%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 50%, Pisa 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pisa's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.72 PPG, Pisa 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.