Benevento 1-0 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Benevento take on Cittadella.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Ciro Vigorito plays host to Benevento versus Cittadella in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 11 December 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benevento have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Ciro Vigorito this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Cittadella (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cittadella away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Benevento, 1.10 for Cittadella — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Benevento 2W, Cittadella 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Benevento winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Benevento — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cittadella — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 44% versus Cittadella 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 39% | Cittadella 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 0.89 xG and Cittadella 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.796 / defence 1.042 | Cittadella attack 0.854 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.117. Benevento's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Benevento games / 54 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 29% | Draw 36% | Cittadella 35%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | Cittadella 2.86. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 50% | Cittadella 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 29% | Draw 36% | Cittadella 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Benevento 0.89 / Cittadella 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.796 / def 1.042 | Cittadella attack 0.854 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Cittadella xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Cittadella kick off?
Benevento vs Cittadella kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 December 2022 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Cittadella?
Benevento 1 - 0 Cittadella.
Where is Benevento vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Cittadella part of?
Benevento vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 29% chance of winning, Cittadella a 35% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Benevento and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Cittadella?
Record (2 meetings): Benevento 2W | Draws 0 | Cittadella 0W.
What form are Benevento and Cittadella in?
Benevento (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Cittadella (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Benevento's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Cittadella's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — Cittadella's attack (0.85x) against Benevento's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.40
36%
2.81
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Benevento xG
Total xG
1.88
0.99
Cittadella xG
3.40
29%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
14%
6.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 15.1 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Benevento and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Benevento and 0.99 for Cittadella, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Benevento come into this having played 54 games, going 23W 14D 17L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cittadella sit at 1.31 PPG from 54 outings (17W 20D 17L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Benevento against 1.31 for Cittadella. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Benevento's home form reads 11W 6D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Cittadella have taken 1.35 points per game from 26 outings (8W 11D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Benevento are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 0.94 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 23W 14D 17L in their last 54 games (1.54 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 17W 20D 17L in their last 54 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Cittadella away?
Benevento's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.50 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Benevento or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cittadella in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benevento won 4-1 on 21 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benevento have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cittadella — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Benevento
0
Draws
1
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Cittadella?
From 4 meetings on record, Benevento have won 3, Cittadella have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Cittadella 3-1 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Cittadella?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Benevento see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 50%, Cittadella 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Benevento) and 27% (Cittadella).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Cittadella in 42%; Benevento have failed to score in 31% of games; Cittadella in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Cittadella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Benevento's recent matches and 42% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Benevento's recent games and 27% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Cittadella tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Benevento defy the odds to beat Cittadella 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Cittadella 1-0 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 0.89 xG and Cittadella 0.99 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cittadella landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 0.80 / defence 1.04 against Cittadella attack 0.85 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 29% | Draw 36% | Cittadella 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Benevento win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 39%, Cittadella 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cittadella's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.54 PPG, Cittadella 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benevento win broke the near-deadlock. Benevento (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.