Brescia 0-2 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 17 as Brescia welcome Parma to Stadio Mario Rigamonti. Kick-off is set for Monday 12 December 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Brescia have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia's home record at Stadio Mario Rigamonti: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Brescia are significantly better at Stadio Mario Rigamonti than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Brescia at 0.90 PPG versus Parma's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Brescia have won 2, Parma 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Brescia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Brescia in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Parma in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 56% versus Parma 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 33% | Parma 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.12 xG and Parma 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.027 / defence 0.927 | Parma attack 0.888 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.068. Data: 54 Brescia games / 54 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 39% | Draw 35% | Parma 26%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.56 | Draw 2.86 | Parma 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brescia as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Brescia 60% | Parma 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Monday 12 Dec 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 39% | Draw 35% | Parma 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Brescia 1.12 / Parma 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.027 / def 0.927 | Parma attack 0.888 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Brescia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Parma xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Parma kick off?
Brescia vs Parma kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 12 December 2022 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Parma?
Brescia 0 - 2 Parma.
Where is Brescia vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Parma part of?
Brescia vs Parma is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 39% chance of winning, Parma a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Brescia and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Parma?
Record (2 meetings): Brescia 2W | Draws 0 | Parma 0W.
What form are Brescia and Parma in?
Brescia (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Parma (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Brescia's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
39%
2.58
35%
2.83
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.00
0.88
Parma xG
2.58
39%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
8%
11.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 11.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Brescia and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Brescia and 0.88 for Parma, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brescia come into this having played 54 games, going 21W 21D 12L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-D. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.33 PPG from 54 outings (17W 21D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brescia on 1.56 PPG, Parma on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brescia's home form reads 12W 10D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.23 points per game from 26 outings (7W 11D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Brescia are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.28 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Parma in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 21W 21D 12L in their last 54 games (1.56 PPG), while Parma have gone 17W 21D 16L in their last 54 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Parma away?
Brescia's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.77 PPG; Parma away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Brescia or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Parma in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brescia and Parma runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Parma have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Brescia's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Brescia
0
Draws
4
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Parma?
From 6 meetings on record, Brescia have won 2, Parma have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Parma 2-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 54%, Parma 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Brescia) and 46% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Parma in 35%; Parma in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Brescia's recent matches and 50% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Brescia's recent games and 46% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Parma tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Parma in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Brescia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Brescia 0-2 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.12 xG and Parma 0.88 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Brescia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Parma outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.03 / defence 0.93 against Parma attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 39% | Draw 35% | Parma 26%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 33%, Parma 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Parma's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.56 PPG, Parma 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Parma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.