Sudtirol 0-0 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ternana make the trip to Stadio Marco Druso to face Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 December 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Sudtirol (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sudtirol have posted 2W 5D 1L at Stadio Marco Druso — 1.38 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ternana have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Sudtirol, 1.50 for Ternana — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sudtirol register both teams scoring in 88% of relevant games, Ternana in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Ternana — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 62% versus Ternana 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 44% | Ternana 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.62 xG and Ternana 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.036 / defence 1.152 | Ternana attack 1.072 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.117. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Sudtirol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Sudtirol games / 54 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 42% | Draw 27% | Ternana 31%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Ternana 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 88% | Ternana 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 42% | Draw 27% | Ternana 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Sudtirol 1.62 / Ternana 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 1.036 / def 1.152 | Ternana attack 1.072 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Ternana xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Ternana kick off?
Sudtirol vs Ternana kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 December 2022 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Ternana?
Sudtirol 0 - 0 Ternana.
Where is Sudtirol vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Ternana part of?
Sudtirol vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 42% chance of winning, Ternana a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sudtirol and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Ternana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sudtirol and Ternana in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Ternana (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sudtirol's attack at 1.04x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (1.07x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 16/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
42%
2.39
27%
3.69
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
3.00
1.38
Ternana xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
6%
16.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.38 for Ternana, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sudtirol come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 7D 4L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ternana sit at 1.56 PPG from 16 outings (7W 4D 5L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.56 for Ternana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sudtirol's home form reads 2W 5D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Ternana have taken 1.25 points per game from 8 outings (3W 1D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sudtirol are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.25 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sudtirol have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ternana in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Ternana in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 5W 7D 4L in their last 16 games (1.38 PPG), while Ternana have gone 7W 4D 5L in their last 16 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Ternana away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.38 PPG; Ternana away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Ternana in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ternana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
2
Draws
0
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Ternana?
From 4 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Ternana have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2024, when Sudtirol 4-3 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Ternana?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 88% for Sudtirol, 75% for Ternana — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Sudtirol and 75% for Ternana. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Sudtirol's games and 75% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sudtirol's matches and 75% of Ternana's.
Do Sudtirol and Ternana tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Ternana in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sudtirol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 17, as Sudtirol and Ternana drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.62 xG and Ternana 1.38 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sudtirol fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Ternana landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.04 / defence 1.15 against Ternana attack 1.07 / defence 1.32, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 42% | Draw 27% | Ternana 31%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 44%, Ternana 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Ternana's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.38 PPG, Ternana 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.