🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Frosinone at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Virtus Entella vs Frosinone encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 22 as Virtus Entella welcome Frosinone to Stadio Comunale. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie B games this season, Virtus Entella have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Virtus Entella at Stadio Comunale this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Virtus Entella are significantly better at Stadio Comunale than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Frosinone's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Frosinone — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Virtus Entella register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Frosinone in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Virtus Entella have won 0, Frosinone 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2025, ended 0–4 with Frosinone winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Virtus Entella in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Frosinone in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Virtus Entella 52% versus Frosinone 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Virtus Entella 29% | Frosinone 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Virtus Entella 0.99 xG and Frosinone 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Virtus Entella attack 0.842 / defence 0.974 | Frosinone attack 1.252 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.036. Frosinone have an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — the away xG of 1.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 21 Virtus Entella games / 59 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Virtus Entella 29% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 42%. Fair-value odds: Virtus Entella 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Frosinone 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Virtus Entella 60% | Frosinone 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights