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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Empoli make the trip to Stadio dei Marmi to face Carrarese in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Friday 23 January 2026 at 19:30 UTC.

Form

Carrarese (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Carrarese's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadio dei Marmi this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Empoli's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie B this season, Empoli have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Carrarese lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 50% versus Empoli 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 48% | Empoli 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.23 xG and Empoli 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.943 / defence 0.899 | Empoli attack 0.861 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.048. Data: 58 Carrarese games / 20 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Carrarese 45% | Draw 31% | Empoli 24%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Empoli 4.17. Carrarese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Carrarese as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Carrarese if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 30% | Empoli 40% BTTS from recent games.

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