Reggiana 1-1 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reggiana at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggiana vs Juve Stabia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 22 as Reggiana welcome Juve Stabia to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Reggiana have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggiana's home record at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Reggiana are significantly better at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore than their overall form suggests.
Juve Stabia — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Juve Stabia are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Reggiana, 0 for Juve Stabia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Reggiana in-play tendencies (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Juve Stabia in-play tendencies (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 59% versus Juve Stabia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 52% | Juve Stabia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.31 xG and Juve Stabia 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.900 / defence 1.254 | Juve Stabia attack 0.902 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.021. Data: 59 Reggiana games / 59 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 40% | Draw 28% | Juve Stabia 32%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Juve Stabia 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Reggiana dominate the H2H record, yet Juve Stabia are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggiana at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Juve Stabia (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggiana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Reggiana 70% | Juve Stabia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 40% | Draw 28% | Juve Stabia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Reggiana 1.31 / Juve Stabia 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.900 / def 1.254 | Juve Stabia attack 0.902 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Juve Stabia xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Reggiana vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Juve Stabia?
Reggiana 1 - 1 Juve Stabia.
Where is Reggiana vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Juve Stabia part of?
Reggiana vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 40% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Reggiana and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Juve Stabia?
Record (3 meetings): Reggiana 2W | Draws 1 | Juve Stabia 0W.
What form are Reggiana and Juve Stabia in?
Reggiana (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Juve Stabia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Reggiana's attack rating (0.90) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
40%
2.53
28%
3.53
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.46
1.15
Juve Stabia xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.15 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reggiana come into this having played 59 games, going 16W 16D 27L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juve Stabia sit at 1.47 PPG from 59 outings (22W 21D 16L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggiana on 1.08 PPG, Juve Stabia on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Reggiana's home form reads 9W 8D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Juve Stabia have taken 0.96 points per game from 28 outings (5W 12D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Reggiana are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.08 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 16W 16D 27L in their last 59 games (1.08 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 22W 21D 16L in their last 59 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Juve Stabia away?
Reggiana's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.25 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Reggiana's record when hosting Juve Stabia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Reggiana
2
Draws
0
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Juve Stabia?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 2, Juve Stabia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Reggiana 1-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Juve Stabia?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 57%, Juve Stabia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Reggiana) and 50% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Reggiana have failed to score in 32% of games; Juve Stabia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Reggiana's games and 54% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggiana vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Reggiana's recent games and 50% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reggiana and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 22, as Reggiana and Juve Stabia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.31 xG and Juve Stabia 1.15 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.90 / defence 1.25 against Juve Stabia attack 0.90 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 40% | Draw 28% | Juve Stabia 32%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 52%, Juve Stabia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.08 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.