Venezia 3-1 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Ascoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ascoli make the trip to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to face Venezia in Serie B (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Current Form
Venezia's record over their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Venezia have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ascoli have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Ascoli have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Venezia. A 1.20 PPG lead over Ascoli (2.20 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Venezia, 1 for Ascoli and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Venezia 1–0 Ascoli — a Venezia win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Venezia — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Ascoli — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 60% versus Ascoli 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 52% | Ascoli 36%). Note also that Ascoli surrender HT leads in 53% of cases while Venezia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.70 xG and Ascoli 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.348 / defence 1.022 | Ascoli attack 0.848 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.184. Venezia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.348 — their 1.70 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Venezia's last 52 games and Ascoli's last 52.
Result probabilities: Venezia 51% | Draw 28% | Ascoli 21%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.96 | Draw 3.54 | Ascoli 4.83. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Venezia's last 10 home games and Ascoli's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Venezia 70% (last 10 home games) | Ascoli 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 51% | Draw 28% | Ascoli 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Venezia 1.70 / Ascoli 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.348 / def 1.022 | Ascoli attack 0.848 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Venezia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Ascoli xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Venezia vs Ascoli FAQs
What time does Venezia vs Ascoli kick off?
Venezia vs Ascoli kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Ascoli?
Venezia 3 - 1 Ascoli.
Where is Venezia vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Ascoli part of?
Venezia vs Ascoli is a Serie B fixture (matchday 15) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 51% chance of winning, Ascoli a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Venezia and Ascoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Venezia vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Venezia's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Ascoli's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — Ascoli's attack (0.85x) against Venezia's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Venezia's last 52 games and Ascoli's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.54
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.73
1.03
Ascoli xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
4%
26.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Venezia vs Ascoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Venezia and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Venezia and 1.03 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Venezia's recent record stands at 22W 13D 17L from 52 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 22L across 52 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Venezia against 1.15 for Ascoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 12W 6D 7L from their last 25 home games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 6W 8D 11L across their last 25 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.04 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
Venezia (Home) vs Ascoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Venezia
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Venezia vs Ascoli Form FAQs
What form are Venezia and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 22W 13D 17L in their last 52 games (1.52 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 15W 15D 22L in their last 52 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Ascoli away?
Venezia's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.68 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Venezia and Ascoli, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 7 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ascoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Venezia
1
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Venezia vs Ascoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Ascoli?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Venezia have won 2, Ascoli have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Venezia and Ascoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 April 2024: Ascoli 0-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Ascoli?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 68%, Ascoli 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Venezia) and 32% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Ascoli in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Venezia vs Ascoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Venezia and Ascoli matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Venezia's games and 48% of Ascoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Venezia and Ascoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Venezia's recent games and 32% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Ascoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Venezia's recent matches and 64% of Ascoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ascoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Ascoli 3-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.70 xG and Ascoli 1.03 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.35 / defence 1.02 against Ascoli attack 0.85 / defence 1.14, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 51% | Draw 28% | Ascoli 21%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 52%, Ascoli 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Ascoli's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.52 PPG, Ascoli 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. Ascoli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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