Spezia 0-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Spezia and Parma meet at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time.
Form
Spezia (all games): 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Spezia's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Parma have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Parma have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Parma are 1.10 PPG clear of Spezia over their recent games (2.00 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 45% versus Parma 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 51% | Parma 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 0.92 xG and Parma 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.703 / defence 1.006 | Parma attack 1.461 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.093 / away 1.179. Spezia's attack rating of 0.703 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Parma's defence rating of 1.202 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Spezia's projected output up. Parma have an above-average attack rating of 1.461, which lifts their away xG to 1.73. Data: built from Spezia's last 14 games and Parma's last 52.
Result probabilities: Spezia 18% | Draw 28% | Parma 54%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 5.63 | Draw 3.58 | Parma 1.84. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Spezia 30% (last 10 home games) | Parma 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 18% | Draw 28% | Parma 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Spezia 0.92 / Parma 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.703 / def 1.006 | Parma attack 1.461 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.093 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Parma (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Parma xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Spezia vs Parma FAQs
What time does Spezia vs Parma kick off?
Spezia vs Parma kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Parma?
Spezia 0 - 1 Parma.
Where is Spezia vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Parma part of?
Spezia vs Parma is a Serie B fixture (matchday 15) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 18% chance of winning, Parma a 54% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Spezia and Parma will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Spezia vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Spezia's attack rating (0.70) and Parma's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Parma's attack (1.46x) against Spezia's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from Spezia's last 14 games and Parma's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-2 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
18%
5.63
28%
3.58
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.66
1.73
Parma xG
5.63
18%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
3%
31.81
22%
4.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 12.2 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Spezia vs Parma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Spezia and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Spezia and 1.73 for Parma, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Spezia's recent record stands at 7W 20D 26L from 53 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 26W 13D 14L across 53 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Spezia heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 4W 12D 10L from their last 26 home games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 10W 8D 8L across their last 26 away games, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spezia are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.43 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Parma in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Parma
Blended
Spezia (Home) vs Parma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Spezia
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Spezia vs Parma Form FAQs
What form are Spezia and Parma in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 7W 20D 26L in their last 53 games (0.77 PPG), while Parma have gone 26W 13D 14L in their last 53 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 0.92 PPG; Parma away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Spezia or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Parma in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Spezia
0
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Spezia vs Parma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Parma?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Spezia have won 0, Parma have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Parma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2024: Parma 2-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 46%, Parma 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Spezia) and 50% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Spezia have failed to score in 46% of games; Parma in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Spezia vs Parma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Spezia and Parma matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Spezia's recent matches and 54% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Spezia and Parma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Spezia's recent games and 50% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Parma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Spezia's recent matches and 73% of Parma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Spezia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Spezia 0-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 0.92 xG and Parma 1.73 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Spezia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.70 / defence 1.01 against Parma attack 1.46 / defence 1.20, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 18% | Draw 28% | Parma 54%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 51%, Parma 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Parma's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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