Bari 0-3 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Bari take on Venezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 14 as Bari welcome Venezia to Stadio Comunale San Nicola. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 November 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 2W 7D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale San Nicola this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Venezia — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Venezia have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Venezia's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Bari's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Bari have won 2, Venezia 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2023, ended 1–0 with Bari winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bari trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Venezia trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 50% versus Venezia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 33% | Venezia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 0.92 xG and Venezia 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.009 / defence 0.867 | Venezia attack 0.910 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.190. Data: 51 Bari games / 51 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 32% | Draw 35% | Venezia 33%. Fair-value odds: Bari 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Venezia 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bari 50% | Venezia 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 32% | Draw 35% | Venezia 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Bari 0.92 / Venezia 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.009 / def 0.867 | Venezia attack 0.910 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Bari xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Venezia xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Venezia kick off?
Bari vs Venezia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Venezia?
Bari 0 - 3 Venezia.
Where is Bari vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Venezia part of?
Bari vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 32% chance of winning, Venezia a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Bari and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Venezia?
Record (2 meetings): Bari 2W | Draws 0 | Venezia 0W.
What form are Bari and Venezia in?
Bari (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Venezia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bari's attack rating (1.01) and Venezia's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.14
35%
2.86
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Bari xG
Total xG
1.85
0.94
Venezia xG
3.14
32%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 14.7 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Bari and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Bari and 0.94 for Venezia, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bari come into this having played 52 games, going 20W 22D 10L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 1.46 PPG from 52 outings (21W 13D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.58 PPG, Venezia on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bari's home form reads 9W 13D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.31 points per game from 26 outings (9W 7D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Bari are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.37 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 62%.
Defensively: Bari have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Venezia in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 20W 22D 10L in their last 52 games (1.58 PPG), while Venezia have gone 21W 13D 18L in their last 52 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Venezia away?
Bari's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.54 PPG; Venezia away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Bari or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Venezia in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bari and Venezia runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Venezia have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Venezia won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bari's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bari
0
Draws
4
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Bari have won 2, Venezia have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bari 0-3 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bari see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 50%, Venezia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Bari) and 42% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Bari keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Bari have failed to score in 27% of games; Venezia in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bari's recent matches and 54% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bari vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bari's recent games and 42% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Venezia run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Bari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Bari 0-3 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 0.92 xG and Venezia 0.94 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Bari fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Venezia outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.01 / defence 0.87 against Venezia attack 0.91 / defence 0.81, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 32% | Draw 35% | Venezia 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Venezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 33%, Venezia 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Venezia's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.58 PPG, Venezia 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.