Modena 2-1 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Reggiana travel to Stadio Alberto Braglia to take on Modena. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 December 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Modena have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio Alberto Braglia — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Reggiana — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggiana's away record: 2W 2D 3L from 7 road trips in Serie B this season (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Modena at 1.30 PPG versus Reggiana's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Modena in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Reggiana in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 50% versus Reggiana 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Modena 29% | Reggiana 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.13 xG and Reggiana 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.874 / defence 1.051 | Reggiana attack 0.850 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.184. Data: 52 Modena games / 14 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 35% | Draw 34% | Reggiana 31%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Reggiana 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Modena 40% | Reggiana 29% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 35% | Draw 34% | Reggiana 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Modena 1.13 / Reggiana 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.874 / def 1.051 | Reggiana attack 0.850 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Modena (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Reggiana xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Reggiana kick off?
Modena vs Reggiana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Reggiana?
Modena 2 - 1 Reggiana.
Where is Modena vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Reggiana part of?
Modena vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 35% chance of winning, Reggiana a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Modena and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Reggiana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Modena and Reggiana in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Reggiana (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Modena's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
35%
2.88
34%
2.93
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Modena xG
Total xG
2.19
1.06
Reggiana xG
2.88
35%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
12%
8.31
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Modena and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Modena and 1.06 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Modena come into this having played 14 games, going 6W 5D 3L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.14 PPG from 14 outings (3W 7D 4L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Reggiana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Modena's home form reads 3W 1D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.00 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Modena have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 6W 5D 3L in their last 14 games (1.64 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 3W 7D 4L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Reggiana away?
Modena's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.43 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Modena or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Reggiana in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Modena and Reggiana runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Modena's record when hosting Reggiana specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Modena
0
Draws
3
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Reggiana?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 3, Reggiana have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Modena 2-1 Reggiana.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Modena 29% BTTS, Reggiana 29%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Modena) and 57% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 43% of games; Reggiana in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Reggiana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Modena's recent matches and 29% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Modena's recent games and 57% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Reggiana tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Reggiana 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Reggiana 2-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.13 xG and Reggiana 1.06 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Modena beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.87 / defence 1.05 against Reggiana attack 0.85 / defence 1.17, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 35% | Draw 34% | Reggiana 31%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 29%, Reggiana 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Reggiana's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.