Brescia 3-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sampdoria at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brescia vs Sampdoria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sampdoria make the trip to Stadio Mario Rigamonti to face Brescia in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 December 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Brescia's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia's home record at Stadio Mario Rigamonti: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sampdoria have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Sampdoria have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sampdoria arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Brescia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sampdoria in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Brescia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sampdoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 50% versus Sampdoria 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 31% | Sampdoria 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 0.90 xG and Sampdoria 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.746 / defence 1.092 | Sampdoria attack 0.940 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.084 / away 1.172. Brescia's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Brescia games / 14 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 25% | Draw 34% | Sampdoria 41%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 4.00 | Draw 2.94 | Sampdoria 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sampdoria as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Brescia 60% | Sampdoria 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 25% | Draw 34% | Sampdoria 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Brescia 0.90 / Sampdoria 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.746 / def 1.092 | Sampdoria attack 0.940 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.084 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Sampdoria xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Sampdoria kick off?
Brescia vs Sampdoria kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Sampdoria?
Brescia 3 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Brescia vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Sampdoria part of?
Brescia vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 25% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 41% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Brescia and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Sampdoria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brescia and Sampdoria in?
Brescia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Brescia's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Sampdoria's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (0.94x) against Brescia's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
25%
3.97
34%
2.94
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.10
1.20
Sampdoria xG
3.97
25%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
8%
13.21
17%
6.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 14.7 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Brescia and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Brescia and 1.20 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Brescia's recent record stands at 11W 20D 21L from 52 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 8W 13D 31L across 52 games — 0.71 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Brescia against 0.71 for Sampdoria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Brescia have managed 6W 10D 10L from 26 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 4W 6D 16L across 26 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Brescia are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.77 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 11W 20D 21L in their last 52 games (1.02 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 8W 13D 31L in their last 52 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Sampdoria away?
Brescia's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.08 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brescia have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Brescia
2
Draws
0
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Sampdoria?
From 4 meetings on record, Brescia have won 2, Sampdoria have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Brescia 1-1 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Sampdoria?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brescia see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 50%, Sampdoria 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Brescia and 46% for Sampdoria.
On the defensive side: Brescia have failed to score in 35% of games; Sampdoria in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Sampdoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Brescia's recent matches and 50% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Brescia's recent games and 46% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Sampdoria 3-1 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 0.90 xG and Sampdoria 1.20 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Brescia beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.75 / defence 1.09 against Sampdoria attack 0.94 / defence 1.11, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 25% | Draw 34% | Sampdoria 41%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Brescia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 31%, Sampdoria 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.02 PPG, Sampdoria 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm. Sampdoria (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.