Reggiana 1-1 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggiana at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggiana vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reggiana host Ascoli at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Reggiana have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggiana's home record at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore: 1W 4D 1L from 6 Serie B appearances (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ascoli — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Reggiana) versus 0.90 (Ascoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Reggiana in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Ascoli in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 46% versus Ascoli 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 46% | Ascoli 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.13 xG and Ascoli 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.884 / defence 1.015 | Ascoli attack 0.851 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.190. Data: 13 Reggiana games / 51 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 37% | Draw 32% | Ascoli 31%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Ascoli 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggiana at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggiana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Reggiana 67% | Ascoli 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 37% | Draw 32% | Ascoli 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Reggiana 1.13 / Ascoli 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.884 / def 1.015 | Ascoli attack 0.851 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Ascoli xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Ascoli kick off?
Reggiana vs Ascoli kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Ascoli?
Reggiana 1 - 1 Ascoli.
Where is Reggiana vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Ascoli part of?
Reggiana vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 37% chance of winning, Ascoli a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Reggiana and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Ascoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggiana and Ascoli in?
Reggiana (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Ascoli (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Reggiana's attack rating (0.88) and Ascoli's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
37%
2.73
32%
3.12
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.16
1.03
Ascoli xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
10%
9.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.03 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reggiana come into this having played 13 games, going 3W 6D 4L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ascoli sit at 0.92 PPG from 13 outings (3W 3D 7L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggiana on 1.15 PPG, Ascoli on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Reggiana's home form reads 1W 4D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Ascoli have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Reggiana are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.00 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 3W 6D 4L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Ascoli away?
Reggiana's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.17 PPG; Ascoli away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ascoli in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Reggiana
2
Draws
0
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Ascoli?
From 2 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 0, Ascoli have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2024, when Ascoli 0-0 Reggiana.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 67%, Ascoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Reggiana and 33% for Ascoli.
On the defensive side: Reggiana keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ascoli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Ascoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Reggiana's games and 50% of Ascoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggiana vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Reggiana's recent games and 33% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Ascoli tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reggiana and Ascoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana and Ascoli finished level at 1-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.13 xG and Ascoli 1.03 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against Ascoli attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 37% | Draw 32% | Ascoli 31%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 46%, Ascoli 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Ascoli's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.15 PPG, Ascoli 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.