Brescia 1-0 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ternana at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brescia vs Ternana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Mario Rigamonti plays host to Brescia versus Ternana in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Monday 10 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Brescia's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brescia have posted 1W 2D 7L at Stadio Mario Rigamonti — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ternana (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Ternana have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Ternana are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Brescia lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Brescia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 51% versus Ternana 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 33% | Ternana 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 0.87 xG and Ternana 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.689 / defence 1.292 | Ternana attack 0.747 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.006. Brescia's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 69 Brescia games / 69 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 30% | Draw 34% | Ternana 36%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Ternana 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ternana as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 30% | Ternana 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 30% | Draw 34% | Ternana 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Brescia 0.87 / Ternana 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.689 / def 1.292 | Ternana attack 0.747 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.006 • Poisson stance: Ternana (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Ternana xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Ternana kick off?
Brescia vs Ternana kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Ternana?
Brescia 1 - 0 Ternana.
Where is Brescia vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Ternana part of?
Brescia vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 30% chance of winning, Ternana a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Brescia and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Ternana?
Record (3 meetings): Brescia 1W | Draws 2 | Ternana 0W.
What form are Brescia and Ternana in?
Brescia (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Ternana (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Brescia's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Ternana's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (0.75x) against Brescia's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
30%
3.33
34%
2.91
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Brescia xG
Total xG
1.84
0.97
Ternana xG
3.33
30%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
15%
6.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 15.4 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Brescia and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Brescia and 0.97 for Ternana, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brescia's recent record stands at 21W 25D 23L from 69 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 25W 19D 25L across 69 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-D-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Brescia against 1.36 for Ternana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Brescia have managed 12W 12D 11L from 35 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ternana's away record stands at 9W 12D 14L across 35 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brescia are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.28 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Current Season
Ternana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Ternana in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 21W 25D 23L in their last 69 games (1.28 PPG), while Ternana have gone 25W 19D 25L in their last 69 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Ternana away?
Brescia's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.37 PPG; Ternana away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Brescia or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Ternana in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brescia have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ternana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Brescia
3
Draws
0
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Ternana?
From 6 meetings on record, Brescia have won 3, Ternana have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Brescia 0-0 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Ternana?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 51%, Ternana 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Brescia) and 57% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Ternana in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of Brescia's games and 69% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brescia vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Brescia's recent games and 57% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Ternana tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Ternana in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Brescia defy the odds to beat Ternana 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Ternana 1-0 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 0.87 xG and Ternana 0.97 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ternana landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.69 / defence 1.29 against Ternana attack 0.75 / defence 1.08, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 30% | Draw 34% | Ternana 36%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Brescia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 33%, Ternana 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Ternana's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.28 PPG, Ternana 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.