Genoa 2-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Genoa host Sudtirol at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 8 December 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Genoa — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genoa have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sudtirol stand at 3W 7D 0L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Genoa at 1.50 PPG versus Sudtirol's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Genoa in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 47% versus Sudtirol 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 33% | Sudtirol 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.94 xG and Sudtirol 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.696 / defence 0.994 | Sudtirol attack 0.959 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.111. Genoa's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Genoa games / 15 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 30% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 37%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Sudtirol 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 40% | Sudtirol 43% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 30% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Genoa 0.94 / Sudtirol 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.696 / def 0.994 | Sudtirol attack 0.959 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Sudtirol xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Sudtirol kick off?
Genoa vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 8 December 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Sudtirol?
Genoa 2 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Genoa vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Sudtirol part of?
Genoa vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 30% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Genoa and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Sudtirol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genoa and Sudtirol in?
Genoa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Genoa's attack rating (0.70) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
30%
3.30
33%
3.01
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.00
1.06
Sudtirol xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
14%
7.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 14.3 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Genoa and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Genoa and 1.06 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genoa come into this having played 15 games, going 6W 5D 4L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.47 PPG from 15 outings (5W 7D 3L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 1.53 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Genoa's home form reads 1W 5D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.57 points per game from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.27 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sudtirol in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 6W 5D 4L in their last 15 games (1.53 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 5W 7D 3L in their last 15 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.14 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Genoa or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Genoa
1
Draws
0
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Sudtirol?
From 2 meetings on record, Genoa have won 1, Sudtirol have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2023, when Sudtirol 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Sudtirol?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 43%, Sudtirol 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Genoa and 43% for Sudtirol.
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Genoa have failed to score in 43% of games; Sudtirol in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Genoa's recent matches and 43% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Genoa's recent games and 43% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sudtirol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Sudtirol 2-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.94 xG and Sudtirol 1.06 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sudtirol landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.70 / defence 0.99 against Sudtirol attack 0.96 / defence 1.12, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 30% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 37%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Genoa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 33%, Sudtirol 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sudtirol's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.53 PPG, Sudtirol 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.