Spezia 0-2 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Spezia face Mantova.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Spezia and Mantova meet at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B (matchday 34). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 17:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Spezia have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Spezia at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Spezia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Mantova (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Mantova's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Spezia, 1 for Mantova and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2025, ended Spezia 1–4 Mantova — a Mantova win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Spezia — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Mantova — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 49% versus Mantova 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 41% | Mantova 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.31 xG and Mantova 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.845 / defence 1.145 | Mantova attack 0.902 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.078. Data: built from Spezia's last 71 games and Mantova's last 71.
Result probabilities: Spezia 39% | Draw 32% | Mantova 29%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.57 | Draw 3.16 | Mantova 3.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spezia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Spezia 50% (last 10 home games) | Mantova 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, matchday 34 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 39% | Draw 32% | Mantova 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Spezia 1.31 / Mantova 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.845 / def 1.145 | Mantova attack 0.902 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Spezia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Mantova xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Spezia vs Mantova FAQs
What time does Spezia vs Mantova kick off?
Spezia vs Mantova kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Mantova?
Spezia 0 - 2 Mantova.
Where is Spezia vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Mantova part of?
Spezia vs Mantova is a Serie B fixture (matchday 34) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 39% chance of winning, Mantova a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Spezia and Mantova will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Spezia vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Spezia's attack at 0.84x the league average against Mantova's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mantova's attack (0.90x) against Spezia's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from Spezia's last 71 games and Mantova's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
39%
2.57
32%
3.16
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.42
1.11
Mantova xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
13%
7.83
8%
12.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Spezia vs Mantova Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Spezia and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Spezia and 1.11 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 71 outings, Spezia have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 24W 23D 24L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Mantova's form line: 20W 21D 30L from 71 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Spezia against 1.14 for Mantova. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.54 PPG from their last 35 home games (15W 9D 11L).
On the road, Mantova have gone 4W 11D 20L from their last 35 away games — 0.66 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Spezia are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.18 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Mantova
Current Season
Spezia (Home) vs Mantova (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Spezia
Current Season
Mantova
Current Season
❓ Spezia vs Mantova Form FAQs
What form are Spezia and Mantova in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 24W 23D 24L in their last 71 games (1.34 PPG), while Mantova have gone 20W 21D 30L in their last 71 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Mantova away?
Spezia's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.54 PPG; Mantova away: 0.66 PPG.
Have Spezia or Mantova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Mantova in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Spezia and Mantova, the earliest from December 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 12 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Mantova have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mantova won Mantova 4-1 Spezia on 23 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mantova — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Spezia
2
Draws
2
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Spezia vs Mantova H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Mantova?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Spezia have won 0, Mantova have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Mantova last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2026: Spezia 0-2 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Mantova?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 54%, Mantova 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Spezia) and 57% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Mantova in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Spezia vs Mantova Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Spezia and Mantova matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Spezia's games and 60% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Spezia and Mantova matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Spezia's recent games and 57% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Mantova matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Spezia's recent matches and 74% of Mantova's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mantova cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Spezia 0-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.31 xG and Mantova 1.11 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Spezia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Mantova outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.84 / defence 1.15 against Mantova attack 0.90 / defence 1.12, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 39% | Draw 32% | Mantova 29%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Mantova win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 41%, Mantova 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mantova's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.34 PPG, Mantova 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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