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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Sudtirol take on Modena.

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Match Analysis

Sudtirol host Modena at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sudtirol stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Marco Druso this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Modena — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Modena's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Modena are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sudtirol, 3 for Modena and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Sudtirol in-play tendencies (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Modena in-play tendencies (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 56% versus Modena 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 49% | Modena 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 0.94 xG and Modena 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.740 / defence 0.930 | Modena attack 0.981 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.099. Sudtirol's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 71 Sudtirol games / 70 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sudtirol 31% | Draw 35% | Modena 34%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Modena 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 40% | Modena 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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