Frosinone 1-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Frosinone at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Benito Stirpe plays host to Frosinone versus Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Friday 10 April 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Frosinone (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Frosinone have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Benito Stirpe — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
Palermo have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Palermo have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Frosinone against 2.00 for Palermo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Frosinone lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Palermo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 56% versus Palermo 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 51% | Palermo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.51 xG and Palermo 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.198 / defence 0.923 | Palermo attack 1.054 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.099. Data: 71 Frosinone games / 71 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 46% | Draw 29% | Palermo 25%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Palermo 4.00. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Frosinone 50% | Palermo 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Friday 10 Apr 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 46% | Draw 29% | Palermo 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Frosinone 1.51 / Palermo 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.198 / def 0.923 | Palermo attack 1.054 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Palermo xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Palermo kick off?
Frosinone vs Palermo kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 10 April 2026 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Palermo?
Frosinone 1 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Frosinone vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Palermo part of?
Frosinone vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 46% chance of winning, Palermo a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Frosinone and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Palermo?
Record (5 meetings): Frosinone 1W | Draws 3 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Frosinone and Palermo in?
Frosinone (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Palermo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Frosinone's attack at 1.20x the league average against Palermo's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (1.05x) against Frosinone's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.47
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.58
1.07
Palermo xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
6%
17.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.07 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Frosinone's recent record stands at 28W 27D 16L from 71 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 32W 20D 19L across 71 games — 1.63 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Frosinone against 1.63 for Palermo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 14W 14D 7L from 35 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palermo's away record stands at 12W 11D 12L across 35 trips, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Frosinone are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.49 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Current Season
Palermo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Palermo in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 28W 27D 16L in their last 71 games (1.56 PPG), while Palermo have gone 32W 20D 19L in their last 71 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Palermo away?
Frosinone's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.60 PPG; Palermo away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Palermo in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Frosinone
4
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Palermo?
From 6 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 1, Palermo have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Frosinone 1-1 Palermo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 57%, Palermo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Frosinone) and 54% (Palermo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Frosinone's games and 60% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Frosinone vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Frosinone's matches and 54% of Palermo's.
Do Frosinone and Palermo tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Palermo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone and Palermo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 34, as Frosinone and Palermo drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.51 xG and Palermo 1.07 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.20 / defence 0.92 against Palermo attack 1.05 / defence 0.91, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 46% | Draw 29% | Palermo 25%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 51%, Palermo 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.56 PPG, Palermo 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.