Reggiana 2-0 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggiana vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 34 as Reggiana welcome Carrarese to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 April 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Reggiana — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Reggiana's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Carrarese have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Carrarese have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Reggiana) versus 1.20 (Carrarese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Reggiana register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Carrarese in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Reggiana, 0 for Carrarese and 3 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Reggiana trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Carrarese trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 56% versus Carrarese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 49% | Carrarese 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.03 xG and Carrarese 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.702 / defence 1.304 | Carrarese attack 1.043 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.084. Reggiana's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 71 Reggiana games / 71 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 24% | Draw 30% | Carrarese 45%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Carrarese 2.22. Carrarese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Carrarese at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Reggiana 60% | Carrarese 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 24% | Draw 30% | Carrarese 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Reggiana 1.03 / Carrarese 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.702 / def 1.304 | Carrarese attack 1.043 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Carrarese xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Carrarese kick off?
Reggiana vs Carrarese kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Carrarese?
Reggiana 2 - 0 Carrarese.
Where is Reggiana vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Carrarese part of?
Reggiana vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 24% chance of winning, Carrarese a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Reggiana and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Carrarese?
Record (3 meetings): Reggiana 0W | Draws 3 | Carrarese 0W.
What form are Reggiana and Carrarese in?
Reggiana (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Reggiana's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Carrarese's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
24%
4.09
30%
3.31
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.51
1.48
Carrarese xG
4.09
24%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
6%
17.90
16%
6.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.48 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reggiana's recent record stands at 18W 20D 33L from 71 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Carrarese, meanwhile, have gone 21W 24D 26L across 71 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggiana on 1.04 PPG, Carrarese on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Reggiana have managed 10W 12D 13L from 35 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carrarese's away record stands at 4W 13D 18L across 35 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggiana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Reggiana are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.17 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Current Season
Carrarese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 18W 20D 33L in their last 71 games (1.04 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 21W 24D 26L in their last 71 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Carrarese away?
Reggiana's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.20 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Carrarese in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reggiana and Carrarese runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Reggiana's record when hosting Carrarese specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Reggiana
3
Draws
0
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 1, Carrarese have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Reggiana 2-0 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Carrarese?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 57%, Carrarese 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Reggiana) and 51% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Reggiana have failed to score in 31% of games; Carrarese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Reggiana's games and 63% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggiana vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Reggiana's recent games and 51% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Carrarese tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reggiana cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Carrarese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana beat Carrarese 2-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.03 xG and Carrarese 1.48 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Reggiana beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Carrarese landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.70 / defence 1.30 against Carrarese attack 1.04 / defence 1.07, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 24% | Draw 30% | Carrarese 45%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Reggiana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 49%, Carrarese 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Carrarese's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.04 PPG, Carrarese 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.