Mantova 1-0 Virtus Entella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Virtus Entella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Virtus Entella make the trip to Stadio Danilo Martelli to face Mantova in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Mantova (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mantova have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadio Danilo Martelli — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Virtus Entella's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Virtus Entella's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mantova lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Virtus Entella winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Mantova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Virtus Entella goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 56% versus Virtus Entella 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 53% | Virtus Entella 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.84 xG and Virtus Entella 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.094 / defence 1.102 | Virtus Entella attack 0.599 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.101. Virtus Entella bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Mantova's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 70 Mantova games / 32 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 63% | Draw 25% | Virtus Entella 13%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 1.59 | Draw 4.00 | Virtus Entella 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Mantova (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mantova as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Mantova 60% | Virtus Entella 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 63% | Draw 25% | Virtus Entella 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 45% | xG Mantova 1.84 / Virtus Entella 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.094 / def 1.102 | Virtus Entella attack 0.599 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Mantova (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Virtus Entella xG
45%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Mantova vs Virtus Entella kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Virtus Entella?
Mantova 1 - 0 Virtus Entella.
Where is Mantova vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Virtus Entella part of?
Mantova vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 63% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Mantova and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Virtus Entella?
Record (1 meetings): Mantova 0W | Draws 0 | Virtus Entella 1W.
What form are Mantova and Virtus Entella in?
Mantova (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Virtus Entella (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mantova's attack rating (1.09) and Virtus Entella's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Virtus Entella's attack (0.60x) against Mantova's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 70/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
63%
1.60
25%
4.06
13%
7.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.57
0.73
Virtus Entella xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
7.86
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
30%
3.30
2%
49.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Mantova and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Mantova and 0.73 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Virtus Entella?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mantova come into this having played 32 games, going 9W 7D 16L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Virtus Entella sit at 1.06 PPG from 32 outings (8W 10D 14L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Mantova against 1.06 for Virtus Entella. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mantova's home form reads 7W 3D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Virtus Entella have taken 0.44 points per game from 16 outings (1W 4D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Virtus Entella's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mantova are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 0.97 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Current Season
Virtus Entella
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 9W 7D 16L in their last 32 games (1.06 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 8W 10D 14L in their last 32 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Virtus Entella away?
Mantova's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.50 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Mantova
0
Draws
1
Virtus Entella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Virtus Entella?
From 2 meetings on record, Mantova have won 1, Virtus Entella have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Virtus Entella last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Mantova 1-0 Virtus Entella.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 69%, Virtus Entella 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Mantova) and 38% (Virtus Entella).
On the defensive side: Virtus Entella in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Virtus Entella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Mantova's recent matches and 38% of Virtus Entella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mantova vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Mantova's recent games and 38% of Virtus Entella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Virtus Entella tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Virtus Entella in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mantova edge out Virtus Entella 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Virtus Entella 1-0 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.84 xG and Virtus Entella 0.73 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mantova fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.09 / defence 1.10 against Virtus Entella attack 0.60 / defence 1.22, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 63% | Draw 25% | Virtus Entella 13%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 53%, Virtus Entella 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Virtus Entella's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.06 PPG, Virtus Entella 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.