Spezia 6-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spezia host Sudtirol at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spezia stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spezia have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadio Alberto Picco — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Spezia are significantly better at Stadio Alberto Picco than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Sudtirol have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sudtirol's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Spezia 0.80 PPG, Sudtirol 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Spezia have won 2, Sudtirol 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Sudtirol winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Spezia in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 49% versus Sudtirol 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 40% | Sudtirol 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 0.98 xG and Sudtirol 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.774 / defence 1.194 | Sudtirol attack 1.032 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.093. Spezia's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 72 Spezia games / 72 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 25% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 43%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Sudtirol 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 40% | Sudtirol 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 25% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Spezia 0.98 / Sudtirol 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.774 / def 1.194 | Sudtirol attack 1.032 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Sudtirol xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Sudtirol kick off?
Spezia vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Sudtirol?
Spezia 6 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Spezia vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Sudtirol part of?
Spezia vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 25% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Spezia and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Sudtirol?
Record (5 meetings): Spezia 2W | Draws 2 | Sudtirol 1W.
What form are Spezia and Sudtirol in?
Spezia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Spezia's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
25%
3.95
32%
3.16
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.33
1.35
Sudtirol xG
3.95
25%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
7%
15.19
16%
6.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.1 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Spezia and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Spezia and 1.35 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spezia's recent record stands at 24W 23D 25L from 72 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Sudtirol, meanwhile, have gone 20W 26D 26L across 72 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 1.32 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 15W 9D 12L from 36 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sudtirol's away record stands at 9W 13D 14L across 36 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Spezia are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.19 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 24W 23D 25L in their last 72 games (1.32 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 20W 26D 26L in their last 72 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Sudtirol away?
Spezia's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.50 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Spezia or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2026, when Spezia won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spezia's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Spezia
2
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Sudtirol?
From 6 meetings on record, Spezia have won 3, Sudtirol have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Spezia 6-1 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Sudtirol?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 53%, Sudtirol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Spezia) and 47% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Spezia's recent matches and 50% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Spezia's recent games and 47% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Spezia run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Sudtirol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Sudtirol 6-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 0.98 xG and Sudtirol 1.35 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Spezia beat their projection by 5.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.77 / defence 1.19 against Sudtirol attack 1.03 / defence 0.92, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 25% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 43%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Spezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 40%, Sudtirol 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sudtirol's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.32 PPG, Sudtirol 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Sudtirol (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.