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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Luigi Ferraris plays host to Sampdoria versus Benevento in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Sampdoria's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Sampdoria haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Sampdoria have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Luigi Ferraris — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.57 xG and Benevento 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.882 / defence 0.978 | Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 38 Sampdoria games / 0 Benevento games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Sampdoria 52% | Draw 28% | Benevento 20%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Benevento 5.00. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sampdoria at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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