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Poisson model rates Arezzo at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arezzo vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Padova make the trip to Citta di Arezzo to face Arezzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Padova have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Padova haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Padova have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Arezzo 1.36 xG and Padova 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arezzo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Padova attack 1.023 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Arezzo games / 38 Padova games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Arezzo 38% | Draw 29% | Padova 33%. Fair-value odds: Arezzo 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Padova 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Arezzo are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arezzo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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