Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ascoli at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 12 as Ascoli welcome Vicenza Virtus to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Ascoli have won 1, Vicenza Virtus 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 0–2 with Vicenza Virtus winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.51 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Ascoli games / 0 Vicenza Virtus games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ascoli 47% | Draw 28% | Vicenza Virtus 25%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Vicenza Virtus 4.00. Ascoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ascoli are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (2 meetings): Ascoli 1W | Draws 0 | Vicenza Virtus 1W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Ascoli 2 – 3 Vicenza Virtus • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Ascoli 50% / Draw 0% / Vicenza Virtus 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 47% / draw 28% / away 25% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.56 (47% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 52% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Form data is not yet available for either side
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 47% | Draw 28% | Vicenza Virtus 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Ascoli 1.51 / Vicenza Virtus 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Vicenza Virtus xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
Where is Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 47% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ascoli and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Vicenza Virtus?
• Record (2 meetings): Ascoli 1W | Draws 0 | Vicenza Virtus 1W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Ascoli 2 – 3 Vicenza Virtus • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Ascoli 50% / Draw 0% / Vicenza Virtus 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 47% / draw 28% / away 25% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.56 (47% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 52% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Ascoli and Vicenza Virtus in?
• Form data is not yet available for either side
What do the betting odds say about Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture