Benevento vs Avellino – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Avellino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Benevento and Avellino meet at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Benevento (all games): 3W 2D 2L across 7 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.57 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benevento's home record at Stadio Ciro Vigorito: 2W 2D 1L from 5 Serie B appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Avellino have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Avellino have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Avellino have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.57 PPG for Benevento against 1.40 for Avellino. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
Avellino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; they lead at the break 71% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Benevento 57% and Avellino 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 43% | Avellino 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.41 xG and Avellino 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.034 / defence 1.073 | Avellino attack 0.881 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Data: 7 Benevento games / 45 Avellino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 40% | Draw 29% | Avellino 30%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Avellino 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benevento are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 80% | Avellino 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Avellino | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 40% | Draw 29% | Avellino 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Benevento 1.41 / Avellino 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.034 / def 1.073 | Avellino attack 0.881 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Benevento (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Avellino xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Avellino kick off?
Benevento vs Avellino is scheduled to kick off at 18:30 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Avellino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Avellino part of?
Benevento vs Avellino is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Avellino?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 40% chance of winning, Avellino a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Avellino?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Benevento and Avellino will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Avellino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Avellino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Avellino in?
Benevento (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Avellino (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Benevento's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Avellino's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Avellino's attack (0.88x) against Benevento's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
40%
2.48
29%
3.40
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.60
1.19
Avellino xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
7%
13.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Avellino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Benevento and Avellino expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Benevento and 1.19 for Avellino, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Avellino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Benevento's recent record stands at 3W 2D 2L from 7 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Avellino, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 2L across 7 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Avellino, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Benevento against 1.57 for Avellino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Benevento have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Benevento are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Avellino's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benevento are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Avellino are on 1.71 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Avellino in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Avellino
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Avellino in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Avellino have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Avellino away?
Benevento's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 2.33 PPG; Avellino away: 1.33 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Benevento, 67% for Avellino — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Benevento) and 33% (Avellino).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Avellino in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Avellino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Avellino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Benevento's games and 67% of Avellino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Avellino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Benevento's recent games and 33% of Avellino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Avellino tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Avellino in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.