Reggina 3-1 Vicenza Virtus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggina at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggina vs Vicenza Virtus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vicenza Virtus make the trip to Stadio Oreste Granillo to face Reggina in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Wednesday 2 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reggina have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Reggina have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Vicenza Virtus (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Reggina, 1.10 for Vicenza Virtus — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Reggina 1W, Vicenza Virtus 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Reggina winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Reggina half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Vicenza Virtus half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 35% versus Vicenza Virtus 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggina 35% | Vicenza Virtus 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.13 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 0.828 / defence 1.106 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.730 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.026 / away 1.126. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing Reggina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Reggina games / 26 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 38% | Draw 36% | Vicenza Virtus 27%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 2.63 | Draw 2.78 | Vicenza Virtus 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggina at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggina if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Reggina 30% | Vicenza Virtus 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 38% | Draw 36% | Vicenza Virtus 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Reggina 1.13 / Vicenza Virtus 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 0.828 / def 1.106 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.730 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.026 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Reggina (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Vicenza Virtus xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Reggina vs Vicenza Virtus kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 2 March 2022 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Vicenza Virtus?
Reggina 3 - 1 Vicenza Virtus.
Where is Reggina vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Reggina vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 38% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Reggina and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Vicenza Virtus?
Record (1 meetings): Reggina 1W | Draws 0 | Vicenza Virtus 0W.
What form are Reggina and Vicenza Virtus in?
Reggina (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reggina's attack rating (0.83) and Vicenza Virtus's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vicenza Virtus's attack (0.73x) against Reggina's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
38%
2.64
36%
2.81
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.04
0.91
Vicenza Virtus xG
2.64
38%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
9%
11.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 11.8 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Reggina and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Reggina and 0.91 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Vicenza Virtus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Reggina have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 10W 5D 11L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vicenza Virtus's form line: 4W 6D 16L from 26 games, 0.69 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Reggina are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Reggina have posted 1.54 PPG from 13 outings (6W 2D 5L).
On the road, Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 2D 9L from 13 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Reggina are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 0.96 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Blended
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 10W 5D 11L in their last 26 games (1.35 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 4W 6D 16L in their last 26 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Vicenza Virtus away?
Reggina's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.54 PPG; Vicenza Virtus away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Reggina or Vicenza Virtus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Vicenza Virtus in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Reggina
0
Draws
0
Vicenza Virtus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Vicenza Virtus?
From 2 meetings on record, Reggina have won 2, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Vicenza Virtus last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2022, when Reggina 3-1 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Reggina and Vicenza Virtus?
Reggina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 38%, Vicenza Virtus 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Reggina) and 54% (Vicenza Virtus).
On the defensive side: Reggina keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Reggina have failed to score in 38% of games; Vicenza Virtus in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Vicenza Virtus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Reggina's recent matches and 46% of Vicenza Virtus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Reggina's recent games and 54% of Vicenza Virtus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reggina cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vicenza Virtus.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Vicenza Virtus 3-1 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.13 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.91 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Reggina beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 0.83 / defence 1.11 against Vicenza Virtus attack 0.73 / defence 1.33, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 38% | Draw 36% | Vicenza Virtus 27%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 35%, Vicenza Virtus 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggina arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.69. Form held, and they took the win. Reggina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.