Frosinone 1-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Cosenza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Frosinone host Cosenza at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 2 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Frosinone — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Frosinone have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Benito Stirpe — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Frosinone have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Frosinone have won 0, Cosenza 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Frosinone in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 54% versus Cosenza 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 54% | Cosenza 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.82 xG and Cosenza 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.173 / defence 1.025 | Cosenza attack 0.818 / defence 1.510. League average goals — home 1.026 / away 1.126. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.510 — this is suppressing Frosinone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Frosinone games / 26 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 56% | Draw 27% | Cosenza 17%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Cosenza 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Frosinone (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 50% | Cosenza 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 56% | Draw 27% | Cosenza 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Frosinone 1.82 / Cosenza 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.173 / def 1.025 | Cosenza attack 0.818 / def 1.510 | league avg home 1.026 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Cosenza xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Cosenza kick off?
Frosinone vs Cosenza kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 2 March 2022 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Cosenza?
Frosinone 1 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Frosinone vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Cosenza part of?
Frosinone vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 56% chance of winning, Cosenza a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Frosinone and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Cosenza?
Record (1 meetings): Frosinone 0W | Draws 1 | Cosenza 0W.
What form are Frosinone and Cosenza in?
Frosinone (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Cosenza (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Frosinone's attack rating (1.17) and Cosenza's defence rating (1.51), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
56%
1.79
27%
3.68
17%
5.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.76
0.94
Cosenza xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
5.84
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
3%
35.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.8 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.94 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Cosenza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Frosinone have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 10W 11D 5L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza's form line: 5W 8D 13L from 26 games, 0.88 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Frosinone are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cosenza.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Frosinone have posted 1.62 PPG from 13 outings (5W 6D 2L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 0W 6D 7L from 13 away games — 0.46 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Frosinone are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.92 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 10W 11D 5L in their last 26 games (1.58 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 5W 8D 13L in their last 26 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Cosenza away?
Frosinone's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.62 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.46 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cosenza in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Frosinone and Cosenza runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Frosinone's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Frosinone
2
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 3, Cosenza have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Frosinone 2-2 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Cosenza?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 54%, Cosenza 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Frosinone) and 46% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cosenza in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Cosenza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Frosinone's games and 69% of Cosenza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Frosinone vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Frosinone's recent games and 46% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Cosenza tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Cosenza 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Cosenza 1-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.82 xG and Cosenza 0.94 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Frosinone fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Cosenza landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.17 / defence 1.02 against Cosenza attack 0.82 / defence 1.51, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 56% | Draw 27% | Cosenza 17%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 54%, Cosenza 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cosenza's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Frosinone (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.