Parma 1-1 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Reggina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 28 as Parma welcome Reggina to Stadio Ennio Tardini. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Reggina — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Reggina have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Parma 1.30 PPG, Reggina 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Parma, 1 for Reggina and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Reggina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Parma in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Reggina in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 56% versus Reggina 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 44% | Reggina 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.54 xG and Reggina 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.120 / defence 1.149 | Reggina attack 0.698 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.036 / away 1.116. Reggina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Parma games / 27 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 50% | Draw 31% | Reggina 19%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Reggina 5.26. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Parma 50% | Reggina 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 50% | Draw 31% | Reggina 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Parma 1.54 / Reggina 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.120 / def 1.149 | Reggina attack 0.698 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.036 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Parma (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Reggina xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Reggina kick off?
Parma vs Reggina kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Reggina?
Parma 1 - 1 Reggina.
Where is Parma vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Reggina part of?
Parma vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 50% chance of winning, Reggina a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Parma and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Reggina?
Record (1 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 0 | Reggina 1W.
What form are Parma and Reggina in?
Parma (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Reggina (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Parma's attack rating (1.12) and Reggina's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reggina's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
50%
2.00
31%
3.27
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Parma xG
Total xG
2.44
0.90
Reggina xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
4%
24.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Parma and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Parma and 0.90 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Parma have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 7W 12D 8L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reggina's form line: 11W 5D 11L from 27 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.22 PPG, Reggina on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Parma have posted 1.31 PPG from 13 outings (4W 5D 4L).
On the road, Reggina have gone 4W 3D 6L from 13 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 0.96 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Reggina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Reggina in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 7W 12D 8L in their last 27 games (1.22 PPG), while Reggina have gone 11W 5D 11L in their last 27 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Reggina away?
Parma's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.31 PPG; Reggina away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Parma or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Reggina in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Reggina runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Parma have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Parma's record when hosting Reggina specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Parma
1
Draws
1
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Reggina?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 2, Reggina have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Reggina 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Reggina?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 54%, Reggina 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Parma and 23% for Reggina.
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Reggina in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Parma's recent matches and 31% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Parma's recent games and 23% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Reggina tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Reggina in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma and Reggina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 28, as Parma and Reggina drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.54 xG and Reggina 0.90 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.12 / defence 1.15 against Reggina attack 0.70 / defence 1.33, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 50% | Draw 31% | Reggina 19%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 44%, Reggina 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Reggina's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.22 PPG, Reggina 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.