Vicenza Virtus 1-0 Pordenone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vicenza Virtus at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vicenza Virtus vs Pordenone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pordenone make the trip to Stadio Romeo Menti to face Vicenza Virtus in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 13:05 UTC.
Form
Vicenza Virtus (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vicenza Virtus at Stadio Romeo Menti this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pordenone have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pordenone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Pordenone have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Pordenone in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Vicenza Virtus, 0 for Pordenone and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 4–2 with Vicenza Virtus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Vicenza Virtus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Pordenone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 52% versus Pordenone 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 48% | Pordenone 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.55 xG and Pordenone 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.910 / defence 1.354 | Pordenone attack 0.678 / defence 1.685. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 1.170. Pordenone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.685 — this is suppressing Vicenza Virtus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Vicenza Virtus games / 25 Pordenone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 45% | Draw 32% | Pordenone 23%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Pordenone 4.35. Vicenza Virtus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vicenza Virtus are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vicenza Virtus if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 60% | Pordenone 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Pordenone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 13:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 45% | Draw 32% | Pordenone 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.55 / Pordenone 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.910 / def 1.354 | Pordenone attack 0.678 / def 1.685 | league avg home 1.010 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Vicenza Virtus (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Pordenone xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Pordenone kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Pordenone kicked off at 13:05 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Vicenza Virtus vs Pordenone?
Vicenza Virtus 1 - 0 Pordenone.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Pordenone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Pordenone part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Pordenone is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Pordenone?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 45% chance of winning, Pordenone a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Vicenza Virtus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Pordenone?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Pordenone will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Pordenone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Pordenone?
Record (1 meetings): Vicenza Virtus 1W | Draws 0 | Pordenone 0W.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Pordenone in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Pordenone (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vicenza Virtus's attack rating (0.91) and Pordenone's defence rating (1.69), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pordenone's attack (0.68x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vicenza Virtus Win
45%
2.22
32%
3.16
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.62
1.07
Pordenone xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
5%
20.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.1 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Pordenone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Pordenone expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.07 for Pordenone, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Pordenone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 25 outings, Vicenza Virtus have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 3W 6D 16L record — L-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pordenone's form line: 2W 6D 17L from 25 games, 0.48 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Pordenone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.60 PPG for Vicenza Virtus against 0.48 for Pordenone. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Vicenza Virtus have posted 0.58 PPG from 12 outings (1W 4D 7L).
On the road, Pordenone have gone 1W 2D 9L from 12 away games — 0.42 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Pordenone are on 0.76 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Pordenone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Pordenone in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 3W 6D 16L in their last 25 games (0.60 PPG), while Pordenone have gone 2W 6D 17L in their last 25 (0.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Pordenone away?
Vicenza Virtus's home record (0.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 0.58 PPG; Pordenone away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Vicenza Virtus
0
Draws
0
Pordenone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Pordenone?
From 2 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 2, Pordenone have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Pordenone last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2022, when Vicenza Virtus 1-0 Pordenone.
Who has won more matches between Vicenza Virtus and Pordenone?
Vicenza Virtus have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Pordenone see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 58%, Pordenone 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Vicenza Virtus) and 50% (Pordenone).
On the defensive side: Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 42% of games; Pordenone in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Pordenone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Pordenone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Vicenza Virtus's recent matches and 50% of Pordenone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Pordenone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 50% of Pordenone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Pordenone tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Pordenone in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vicenza Virtus edge out Pordenone 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vicenza Virtus beat Pordenone 1-0 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vicenza Virtus 1.55 xG and Pordenone 1.07 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pordenone landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vicenza Virtus attack 0.91 / defence 1.35 against Pordenone attack 0.68 / defence 1.69, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vicenza Virtus 45% | Draw 32% | Pordenone 23%, with Vicenza Virtus to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vicenza Virtus 48%, Pordenone 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Pordenone's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vicenza Virtus 0.60 PPG, Pordenone 0.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vicenza Virtus win broke the near-deadlock. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Pordenone (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.