Pisa 3-2 Crotone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Crotone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and Crotone meet at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 2 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pisa have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia.
Crotone's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crotone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crotone away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Pisa's favour (1.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Pisa 0W, Crotone 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Crotone winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Crotone half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 50% versus Crotone 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 27% | Crotone 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.19 xG and Crotone 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.793 / defence 0.997 | Crotone attack 0.654 / defence 1.464. League average goals — home 1.026 / away 1.126. Pisa's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Crotone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.464 — this is suppressing Pisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Pisa games / 26 Crotone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 44% | Draw 36% | Crotone 20%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.27 | Draw 2.78 | Crotone 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 50% | Crotone 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Crotone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 44% | Draw 36% | Crotone 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Pisa 1.19 / Crotone 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.793 / def 0.997 | Crotone attack 0.654 / def 1.464 | league avg home 1.026 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Pisa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Crotone xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Crotone kick off?
Pisa vs Crotone kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 2 March 2022 at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Crotone?
Pisa 3 - 2 Crotone.
Where is Pisa vs Crotone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia.
What competition is Pisa vs Crotone part of?
Pisa vs Crotone is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Crotone?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 44% chance of winning, Crotone a 20% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Crotone?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Pisa and Crotone will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Crotone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Crotone?
Record (1 meetings): Pisa 0W | Draws 0 | Crotone 1W.
What form are Pisa and Crotone in?
Pisa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Crotone (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pisa's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Crotone's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Crotone's attack (0.65x) against Pisa's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
44%
2.26
36%
2.82
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Pisa xG
Total xG
1.93
0.73
Crotone xG
2.26
44%
Home win
2.82
36%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
6%
16.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Crotone?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Pisa and Crotone expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Pisa and 0.73 for Crotone, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Crotone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pisa come into this having played 26 games, going 12W 10D 4L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Crotone sit at 0.58 PPG from 26 outings (2W 9D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Crotone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.19 PPG clear of Crotone — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Pisa's home form reads 6W 6D 1L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Crotone have taken 0.23 points per game from 13 outings (0W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pisa are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Crotone are on 1.00 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Crotone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Crotone in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 12W 10D 4L in their last 26 games (1.77 PPG), while Crotone have gone 2W 9D 15L in their last 26 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Crotone away?
Pisa's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.85 PPG; Crotone away: 0.23 PPG.
Have Pisa or Crotone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Crotone in 4%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pisa
0
Draws
1
Crotone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Crotone?
From 2 meetings on record, Pisa have won 1, Crotone have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Crotone last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2022, when Pisa 3-2 Crotone.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 46%, Crotone 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Pisa and 46% for Crotone.
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Crotone in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Crotone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Crotone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Pisa's recent matches and 54% of Crotone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Crotone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Pisa's recent games and 46% of Crotone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Crotone tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Crotone in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Crotone 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Crotone 3-2 at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.19 xG and Crotone 0.73 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crotone outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.79 / defence 1.00 against Crotone attack 0.65 / defence 1.46, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 44% | Draw 36% | Crotone 20%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 27%, Crotone 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Crotone's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.58. That form edge translated into the three points. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crotone (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.