Spal 0-0 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cittadella at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spal vs Cittadella encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 27 as Spal welcome Cittadella to Stadio Paolo Mazza. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 2 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Spal have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spal's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Paolo Mazza this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cittadella stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cittadella have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Cittadella are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Spal, 0 for Cittadella and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Spal in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cittadella in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 58% versus Cittadella 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spal 50% | Cittadella 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.27 xG and Cittadella 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.211 / defence 1.441 | Cittadella attack 0.862 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.026 / away 1.126. Data: 26 Spal games / 26 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 31% | Draw 31% | Cittadella 38%. Fair-value odds: Spal 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Cittadella 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cittadella are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cittadella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Spal 80% | Cittadella 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 31% | Draw 31% | Cittadella 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Spal 1.27 / Cittadella 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.211 / def 1.441 | Cittadella attack 0.862 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.026 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Spal xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Cittadella xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Cittadella kick off?
Spal vs Cittadella kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 2 March 2022 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Cittadella?
Spal 0 - 0 Cittadella.
Where is Spal vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Cittadella part of?
Spal vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 31% chance of winning, Cittadella a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Spal and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Cittadella?
Record (1 meetings): Spal 0W | Draws 1 | Cittadella 0W.
What form are Spal and Cittadella in?
Spal (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Cittadella (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Spal's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Cittadella's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Cittadella's attack versus Spal's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
31%
3.18
31%
3.24
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Spal xG
Total xG
2.67
1.40
Cittadella xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
8%
12.87
11%
9.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Spal and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Spal and 1.40 for Cittadella, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Spal have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 6W 9D 11L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cittadella's form line: 11W 8D 7L from 26 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cittadella are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Spal.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Spal have posted 1.08 PPG from 13 outings (3W 5D 5L).
On the road, Cittadella have gone 5W 5D 3L from 13 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cittadella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Spal are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 1.19 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 6W 9D 11L in their last 26 games (1.04 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 11W 8D 7L in their last 26 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Cittadella away?
Cittadella's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 1.08 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Spal or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spal have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Cittadella in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spal and Cittadella runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Spal's record when hosting Cittadella specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spal
3
Draws
0
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Cittadella?
From 4 meetings on record, Spal have won 1, Cittadella have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Spal 2-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Cittadella?
Spal have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 77%, Cittadella 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Spal) and 23% (Cittadella).
On the defensive side: Cittadella in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Cittadella?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Spal's games and 46% of Cittadella's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spal vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Spal's recent games and 23% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Cittadella tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Spal's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 27, as Spal and Cittadella drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.27 xG and Cittadella 1.40 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Spal fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Cittadella landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.21 / defence 1.44 against Cittadella attack 0.86 / defence 1.02, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 31% | Draw 31% | Cittadella 38%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 50%, Cittadella 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cittadella's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cittadella arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Spal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.