Reggina 3-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggina at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggina vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 8 as Reggina welcome Cosenza to Stadio Oreste Granillo. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 October 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Reggina — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Reggina have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reggina's home record at Stadio Oreste Granillo: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Oreste Granillo. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Reggina are significantly better at Stadio Oreste Granillo than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cosenza have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Reggina) versus 1.70 (Cosenza). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Reggina, 0 for Cosenza and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Reggina winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Reggina in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 31% versus Cosenza 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggina 38% | Cosenza 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.62 xG and Cosenza 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 1.441 / defence 0.804 | Cosenza attack 0.862 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.109. Reggina carry an above-average attack strength of 1.441 — their λ of 1.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Reggina games / 45 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 58% | Draw 25% | Cosenza 18%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Cosenza 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Reggina (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reggina are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Reggina 20% | Cosenza 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 58% | Draw 25% | Cosenza 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 43% | xG Reggina 1.62 / Cosenza 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 1.441 / def 0.804 | Cosenza attack 0.862 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Reggina (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Cosenza xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Cosenza kick off?
Reggina vs Cosenza kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Cosenza?
Reggina 3 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Reggina vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Cosenza part of?
Reggina vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 58% chance of winning, Cosenza a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Reggina and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Cosenza?
Record (2 meetings): Reggina 2W | Draws 0 | Cosenza 0W.
What form are Reggina and Cosenza in?
Reggina (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Cosenza (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Reggina's attack rating (1.44) and Cosenza's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Reggina's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
58%
1.73
25%
4.05
18%
5.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.39
0.77
Cosenza xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
5.68
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
3%
28.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Reggina and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Reggina and 0.77 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Cosenza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Reggina have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 18W 9D 18L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Reggina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cosenza's form line: 12W 13D 20L from 45 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggina on 1.40 PPG, Cosenza on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Reggina have posted 1.73 PPG from 22 outings (12W 2D 8L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 1W 10D 11L from 22 away games — 0.59 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Reggina are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Early Season
Cosenza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 18W 9D 18L in their last 45 games (1.40 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 12W 13D 20L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Cosenza away?
Reggina's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.73 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.59 PPG.
Have Reggina or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Cosenza in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reggina and Cosenza runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Reggina won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Reggina's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Reggina
0
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Cosenza?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggina have won 3, Cosenza have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2023, when Cosenza 2-1 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Reggina and Cosenza?
Reggina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 32%, Cosenza 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Reggina) and 32% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Reggina keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Reggina have failed to score in 32% of games; Cosenza in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Reggina's recent matches and 59% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Reggina's recent games and 32% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Cosenza tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Reggina run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Cosenza 3-0 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.62 xG and Cosenza 0.77 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Reggina beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 1.44 / defence 0.80 against Cosenza attack 0.86 / defence 0.90, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 58% | Draw 25% | Cosenza 18%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 38%, Cosenza 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cosenza's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggina 1.40 PPG, Cosenza 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggina win broke the near-deadlock. Reggina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.