Modena 1-0 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reggina at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Reggina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 7 as Modena welcome Reggina to Stadio Alberto Braglia. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 1W 0D 5L from 6 Serie B matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Modena have posted 1W 0D 2L at Stadio Alberto Braglia — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Modena are significantly better at Stadio Alberto Braglia than their overall form suggests.
Reggina — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Reggina have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reggina away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Reggina's 1.90 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Modena's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Modena in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Reggina in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Modena 50% | Reggina 17%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 50% | Reggina 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.10 xG and Reggina 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.995 / defence 1.297 | Reggina attack 0.995 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.055. Data: 6 Modena games / 44 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 30% | Draw 27% | Reggina 43%. Fair-value odds: Modena 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Reggina 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggina at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Modena 67% | Reggina 30%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 30% | Draw 27% | Reggina 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Modena 1.10 / Reggina 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.995 / def 1.297 | Reggina attack 0.995 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Reggina (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Reggina xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Reggina kick off?
Modena vs Reggina kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Reggina?
Modena 1 - 0 Reggina.
Where is Modena vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Reggina part of?
Modena vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 30% chance of winning, Reggina a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Modena and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Reggina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Modena and Reggina in?
Modena (all comps): 1W-0D-5L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Reggina (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Modena's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Reggina's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Reggina's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
30%
3.31
27%
3.71
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Modena xG
Total xG
2.46
1.36
Reggina xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
8%
12.92
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Modena and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Modena and 1.36 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Modena's recent record stands at 1W 0D 5L from 6 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Reggina, meanwhile, have gone 5W 0D 1L across 6 games — 2.50 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Reggina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Reggina by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Modena heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Modena have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.50 PPG overall — Modena are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Reggina's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across 3 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Reggina's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 2.33 scored and 0.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reggina in 17%.
Defensively: Reggina in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Reggina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Reggina in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 1W 0D 5L in their last 6 games (0.50 PPG), while Reggina have gone 5W 0D 1L in their last 6 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Reggina away?
Reggina's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.00 PPG; Reggina away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Modena or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Reggina in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Modena and Reggina runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Modena
0
Draws
1
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Reggina?
From 2 meetings on record, Modena have won 1, Reggina have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Reggina 2-1 Modena.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 67%, Reggina 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Modena) and 33% (Reggina).
On the defensive side: Reggina in 33%; Modena have failed to score in 33% of games; Reggina in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Modena's recent matches and 33% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Modena's recent games and 33% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Reggina tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Reggina in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Modena defy the odds to beat Reggina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Reggina 1-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.10 xG and Reggina 1.36 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Reggina landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.99 / defence 1.30 against Reggina attack 0.99 / defence 0.86, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 30% | Draw 27% | Reggina 43%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Modena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 50%, Reggina 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Reggina's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggina arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Modena winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Modena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Reggina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.