Sudtirol 1-1 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benevento make the trip to Stadio Marco Druso to face Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 October 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Sudtirol (all games): 3W 1D 3L across 7 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.43 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol at Stadio Marco Druso this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Benevento's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benevento's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.43 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 43% versus Benevento 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 43% | Benevento 14%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 0.90 xG and Benevento 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.895 / defence 1.149 | Benevento attack 0.914 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.091. Benevento's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 7 Sudtirol games / 45 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 29% | Draw 30% | Benevento 41%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Benevento 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 100% | Benevento 10%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 29% | Draw 30% | Benevento 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Sudtirol 0.90 / Benevento 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.895 / def 1.149 | Benevento attack 0.914 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Benevento (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Benevento xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Benevento kick off?
Sudtirol vs Benevento kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Benevento?
Sudtirol 1 - 1 Benevento.
Where is Sudtirol vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Benevento part of?
Sudtirol vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 29% chance of winning, Benevento a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sudtirol and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sudtirol and Benevento in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Benevento (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.91x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
29%
3.51
30%
3.32
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.04
1.15
Benevento xG
3.51
29%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
9%
11.02
17%
5.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.8 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.15 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 3W 1D 3L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento's form line: 2W 2D 3L from 7 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.14 for Benevento. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
On the road, Benevento have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sudtirol are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 0.71 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento in 29%.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Benevento in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Benevento have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Benevento away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.33 PPG; Benevento away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
1
Draws
0
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Benevento?
From 2 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Benevento have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2023, when Benevento 0-2 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Benevento?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benevento tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 100%, Benevento 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Sudtirol and 0% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Benevento in 67%; Benevento in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 0% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Sudtirol's recent games and 0% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Benevento tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Benevento in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol and Benevento share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol and Benevento finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 0.90 xG and Benevento 1.15 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against Benevento attack 0.91 / defence 0.79, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 29% | Draw 30% | Benevento 41%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 43%, Benevento 14%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Benevento's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.43 PPG, Benevento 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.