Genoa 0-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Genoa host Cagliari at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 7 October 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Genoa — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genoa have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cagliari have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Genoa have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Genoa, 0 for Cagliari and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Genoa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Genoa in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Cagliari in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 40% versus Cagliari 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 40% | Cagliari 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.15 xG and Cagliari 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.947 / defence 1.096 | Cagliari attack 0.843 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.123. Data: 7 Genoa games / 7 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 38% | Draw 29% | Cagliari 33%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Cagliari 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 30% | Cagliari 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 38% | Draw 29% | Cagliari 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Genoa 1.15 / Cagliari 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.947 / def 1.096 | Cagliari attack 0.843 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Genoa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Cagliari xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Cagliari kick off?
Genoa vs Cagliari kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 7 October 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Cagliari?
Genoa 0 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is Genoa vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Cagliari part of?
Genoa vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 38% chance of winning, Cagliari a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Genoa and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Cagliari?
Record (2 meetings): Genoa 2W | Draws 0 | Cagliari 0W.
What form are Genoa and Cagliari in?
Genoa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Cagliari (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.95x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
38%
2.61
29%
3.43
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.19
1.04
Cagliari xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
10%
9.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Genoa and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Genoa and 1.04 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genoa's recent record stands at 8W 18D 19L from 45 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 9W 13D 23L across 45 games — 0.89 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 0.93 PPG, Cagliari on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 4W 10D 8L from 22 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 4W 7D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 0.91 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
Cagliari
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 8W 18D 19L in their last 45 games (0.93 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 9W 13D 23L in their last 45 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Cagliari away?
Genoa's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.00 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Genoa or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cagliari in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 12 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2024, when Genoa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genoa's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Genoa
5
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Cagliari?
From 10 meetings on record, Genoa have won 4, Cagliari have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2026, when Genoa 3-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Cagliari?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 41%, Cagliari 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Genoa) and 41% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Genoa have failed to score in 46% of games; Cagliari in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Genoa's recent matches and 46% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Genoa's recent games and 41% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Cagliari tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Genoa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa and Cagliari finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.15 xG and Cagliari 1.04 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Genoa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cagliari landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.95 / defence 1.10 against Cagliari attack 0.84 / defence 0.95, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 38% | Draw 29% | Cagliari 33%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 40%, Cagliari 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cagliari's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 0.93 PPG, Cagliari 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.