Venezia 1-2 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bari at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Bari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Venezia host Bari at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Venezia — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 4W 3D 0L from 7 Serie B matches — 2.14 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.29 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bari have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bari away from home this season: 3W 1D 0L from 4 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bari — 0.84 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.14 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Venezia in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
Bari in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Venezia 71% and Bari 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 43% | Bari 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 0.86 xG and Bari 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.753 / defence 1.233 | Bari attack 1.046 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.108. Venezia's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Venezia games / 7 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 23% | Draw 27% | Bari 50%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Bari 2.00. Bari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bari are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Venezia 70% | Bari 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 23% | Draw 27% | Bari 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Venezia 0.86 / Bari 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.753 / def 1.233 | Bari attack 1.046 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Bari (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Bari xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Bari kick off?
Venezia vs Bari kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Bari?
Venezia 1 - 2 Bari.
Where is Venezia vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Bari part of?
Venezia vs Bari is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 23% chance of winning, Bari a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Venezia and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Bari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Venezia and Bari in?
Venezia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Bari (all comps): 4W-3D-0L in 7 | 2.14 PPG | GF 2.29 / GA 1.14 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Venezia's attack at 0.75x the league average against Bari's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
23%
4.44
27%
3.71
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.29
1.43
Bari xG
4.44
23%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
42%
2.35
Win to Nil
5%
18.56
21%
4.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 14.5 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Venezia and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Venezia and 1.43 for Bari, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Venezia's recent record stands at 2W 2D 3L from 7 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bari, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 0L across 7 games — 2.14 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bari by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Venezia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.14 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Bari's away record stands at 3W 0D 0L across 3 trips, a 3.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 2.14 PPG overall record — Bari travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Venezia are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 2.29 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Bari in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Early Season
Bari
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Bari in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 games (1.14 PPG), while Bari have gone 4W 3D 0L in their last 7 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Bari away?
Bari's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 0.33 PPG; Bari away: 3.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Venezia go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Venezia won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Venezia's record when hosting Bari specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Venezia
0
Draws
2
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Bari?
From 6 meetings on record, Venezia have won 4, Bari have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bari 0-3 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Bari?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 67%, Bari 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Venezia and 33% for Bari.
On the defensive side: Bari in 67%; Venezia have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Venezia's recent matches and 33% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Venezia's recent games and 33% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Bari tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bari in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bari edge out Venezia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Venezia 1-2 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 0.86 xG and Bari 1.43 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.75 / defence 1.23 against Bari attack 1.05 / defence 0.91, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 23% | Draw 27% | Bari 50%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 43%, Bari 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Bari's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.