Parma 2-0 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Reggina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 9 as Parma welcome Reggina to Stadio Ennio Tardini. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Reggina — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Reggina have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Parma 1.70 PPG, Reggina 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Parma, 1 for Reggina and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Parma in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Reggina in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 56% versus Reggina 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 46% | Reggina 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.27 xG and Reggina 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.145 / defence 1.124 | Reggina attack 0.874 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.096. Data: 46 Parma games / 46 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 41% | Draw 28% | Reggina 31%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Reggina 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Parma 70% | Reggina 30%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 41% | Draw 28% | Reggina 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Parma 1.27 / Reggina 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.145 / def 1.124 | Reggina attack 0.874 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Parma (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Reggina xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Reggina kick off?
Parma vs Reggina kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Reggina?
Parma 2 - 0 Reggina.
Where is Parma vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Reggina part of?
Parma vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 41% chance of winning, Reggina a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Parma and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Reggina?
Record (2 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 1 | Reggina 1W.
What form are Parma and Reggina in?
Parma (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Reggina (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Parma's attack rating (1.15) and Reggina's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reggina's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
41%
2.44
28%
3.59
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Parma xG
Total xG
2.35
1.08
Reggina xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
9%
11.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Parma and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Parma and 1.08 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Parma have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 14W 20D 12L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reggina's form line: 19W 9D 18L from 46 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.35 PPG, Reggina on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Parma have posted 1.35 PPG from 23 outings (7W 10D 6L).
On the road, Reggina have gone 6W 7D 10L from 23 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 1.04 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Reggina in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Reggina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Reggina in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 14W 20D 12L in their last 46 games (1.35 PPG), while Reggina have gone 19W 9D 18L in their last 46 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Reggina away?
Parma's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.35 PPG; Reggina away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Parma or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Reggina in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Reggina runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Parma have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Parma's record when hosting Reggina specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Parma
1
Draws
1
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Reggina?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 2, Reggina have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Reggina 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Reggina?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 61%, Reggina 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Parma and 22% for Reggina.
On the defensive side: Reggina in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Parma's recent matches and 30% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Parma's recent games and 22% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Reggina tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Reggina in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Reggina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Reggina 2-0 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.27 xG and Reggina 1.08 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Reggina landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.15 / defence 1.12 against Reggina attack 0.87 / defence 0.88, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 41% | Draw 28% | Reggina 31%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 46%, Reggina 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Reggina's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.35 PPG, Reggina 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.