Reggiana 0-0 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monza at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggiana vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reggiana host Monza at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B (matchday 31). Kick-off is Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Reggiana — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Reggiana have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Monza stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Monza have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Monza — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Reggiana have won 0, Monza 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Reggiana 1–3 Monza — a Monza win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Reggiana trading profile (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Monza trading profile (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 57% versus Monza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 48% | Monza 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.07 xG and Monza 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.790 / defence 1.277 | Monza attack 1.083 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.126. Reggiana's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Reggiana's defence rating of 1.277 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Monza's projected output up. Data: built from Reggiana's last 68 games and Monza's last 30.
Result probabilities: Reggiana 25% | Draw 27% | Monza 47%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 3.99 | Draw 3.64 | Monza 2.11. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Reggiana 50% (last 10 home games) | Monza 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, matchday 31 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 25% | Draw 27% | Monza 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Reggiana 1.07 / Monza 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.790 / def 1.277 | Monza attack 1.083 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Monza (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Monza xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reggiana vs Monza FAQs
What time does Reggiana vs Monza kick off?
Reggiana vs Monza kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Monza?
Reggiana 0 - 0 Monza.
Where is Reggiana vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Monza part of?
Reggiana vs Monza is a Serie B fixture (matchday 31) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 25% chance of winning, Monza a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Reggiana and Monza will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Reggiana vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Reggiana's attack rating (0.79) and Monza's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Reggiana's last 68 games and Monza's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
25%
3.99
27%
3.64
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.63
1.56
Monza xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
5%
18.95
16%
6.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.2 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reggiana vs Monza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.56 for Monza, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reggiana's recent record stands at 18W 19D 31L from 68 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Monza, meanwhile, have gone 22W 15D 31L across 68 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggiana on 1.07 PPG, Monza on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Reggiana have managed 10W 11D 12L from their last 33 home games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Monza's away record stands at 9W 7D 17L across their last 33 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Reggiana are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.13 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
Reggiana (Home) vs Monza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reggiana
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
❓ Reggiana vs Monza Form FAQs
What form are Reggiana and Monza in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 18W 19D 31L in their last 68 games (1.07 PPG), while Monza have gone 22W 15D 31L in their last 68 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Monza away?
Reggiana's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.24 PPG; Monza away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2025. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 17 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Reggiana
1
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Reggiana vs Monza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Monza?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Reggiana have won 0, Monza have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Monza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 March 2026: Reggiana 0-0 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 58%, Monza 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Reggiana) and 52% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Reggiana have failed to score in 30% of games; Monza in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reggiana vs Monza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reggiana and Monza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Reggiana's recent matches and 52% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Reggiana and Monza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Reggiana's recent games and 52% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Monza matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Reggiana's recent matches and 61% of Monza's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Reggiana's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana and Monza finished level at 0-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.07 xG and Monza 1.56 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reggiana fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Monza landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.79 / defence 1.28 against Monza attack 1.08 / defence 1.02, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 25% | Draw 27% | Monza 47%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 48%, Monza 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Monza's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.07 PPG, Monza 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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