Virtus Entella 3-0 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Virtus Entella at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Virtus Entella vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Reggiana travel to Stadio Comunale to take on Virtus Entella. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026, 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Virtus Entella — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Virtus Entella have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio Comunale — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Reggiana have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Reggiana away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Virtus Entella 1.10 PPG, Reggiana 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Virtus Entella, 0 for Reggiana and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Virtus Entella in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Reggiana in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Virtus Entella 55% versus Reggiana 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Virtus Entella 39% | Reggiana 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Virtus Entella 1.44 xG and Reggiana 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Virtus Entella attack 0.913 / defence 1.138 | Reggiana attack 0.769 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.122. Data: 31 Virtus Entella games / 69 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Virtus Entella 46% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 24%. Fair-value odds: Virtus Entella 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Reggiana 4.17. Virtus Entella hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Virtus Entella are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Virtus Entella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Virtus Entella 70% | Reggiana 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Virtus Entella vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Comunale • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Virtus Entella 46% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Virtus Entella 1.44 / Reggiana 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Virtus Entella attack 0.913 / def 1.138 | Reggiana attack 0.769 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Virtus Entella (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Virtus Entella xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Reggiana xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Virtus Entella vs Reggiana kick off?
Virtus Entella vs Reggiana kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Stadio Comunale.
What was the final score in Virtus Entella vs Reggiana?
Virtus Entella 3 - 0 Reggiana.
Where is Virtus Entella vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale.
What competition is Virtus Entella vs Reggiana part of?
Virtus Entella vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Virtus Entella vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Virtus Entella a 46% chance of winning, Reggiana a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Virtus Entella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Virtus Entella vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Virtus Entella and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Virtus Entella vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Reggiana?
Record (1 meetings): Virtus Entella 0W | Draws 1 | Reggiana 0W.
What form are Virtus Entella and Reggiana in?
Virtus Entella (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Reggiana (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Virtus Entella's attack rating (0.91) and Reggiana's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Virtus Entella's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Virtus Entella Win
46%
2.17
30%
3.38
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Virtus Entella xG
Total xG
2.42
0.98
Reggiana xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
6%
17.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Virtus Entella vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Virtus Entella and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Virtus Entella and 0.98 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Virtus Entella vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Virtus Entella have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 7W 10D 14L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Reggiana's form line: 7W 9D 15L from 31 games, 0.97 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Virtus Entella on 1.00 PPG, Reggiana on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Virtus Entella have posted 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (6W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Virtus Entella are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Reggiana have gone 3W 3D 9L from 15 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Virtus Entella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Virtus Entella are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 0.97 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Virtus Entella
Current Season
Reggiana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Virtus Entella and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Virtus Entella have gone 7W 10D 14L in their last 31 games (1.00 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 7W 9D 15L in their last 31 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Virtus Entella at home or Reggiana away?
Virtus Entella's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Virtus Entella at home: 1.60 PPG; Reggiana away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Virtus Entella and Reggiana runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Virtus Entella
1
Draws
0
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Reggiana?
From 2 meetings on record, Virtus Entella have won 1, Reggiana have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Virtus Entella and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Virtus Entella 3-0 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Virtus Entella and Reggiana?
Virtus Entella have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Virtus Entella 73%, Reggiana 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Virtus Entella) and 47% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Virtus Entella home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Virtus Entella play Reggiana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Virtus Entella's games and 53% of Reggiana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Virtus Entella vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Virtus Entella's recent games and 47% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Virtus Entella and Reggiana tend to score early?
Virtus Entella have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Virtus Entella run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Virtus Entella beat Reggiana 3-0 at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 1.44 xG and Reggiana 0.98 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Virtus Entella beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Reggiana landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.91 / defence 1.14 against Reggiana attack 0.77 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 46% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 24%, with Virtus Entella to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 39%, Reggiana 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Virtus Entella's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Reggiana's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Virtus Entella 1.00 PPG, Reggiana 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Virtus Entella win broke the near-deadlock. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.