🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Reggiana at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggiana vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 27 as Reggiana welcome Carrarese to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Reggiana — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Reggiana's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Serie B games this season, Carrarese have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie B this season, Carrarese have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Reggiana) versus 1.10 (Carrarese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Reggiana, 0 for Carrarese and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Reggiana trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Carrarese trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 42% versus Carrarese 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggiana 35% | Carrarese 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.20 xG and Carrarese 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.775 / defence 1.003 | Carrarese attack 0.704 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.078. Reggiana's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Carrarese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Reggiana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Reggiana games / 26 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Reggiana 44% | Draw 35% | Carrarese 21%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.27 | Draw 2.86 | Carrarese 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggiana at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggiana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Reggiana 30% | Carrarese 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights