Cremonese 1-2 Cesena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Cesena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Cesena travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 February 2025, 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's home record at Stadio Giovanni Zini: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cesena — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cesena's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Cremonese are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cremonese, 0 for Cesena and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Cremonese winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Cesena trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 58% versus Cesena 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 46% | Cesena 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.73 xG and Cesena 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.120 / defence 1.108 | Cesena attack 0.920 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.094. Cesena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Cremonese games / 26 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 50% | Draw 27% | Cesena 23%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Cesena 4.35. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 80% | Cesena 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 50% | Draw 27% | Cesena 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Cremonese 1.73 / Cesena 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.120 / def 1.108 | Cesena attack 0.920 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Cesena xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Cesena kick off?
Cremonese vs Cesena kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Cesena?
Cremonese 1 - 2 Cesena.
Where is Cremonese vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Cesena part of?
Cremonese vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 50% chance of winning, Cesena a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Cremonese and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Cesena?
Record (1 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 0 | Cesena 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Cesena in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Cesena (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cremonese's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Cesena's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Cesena's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
50%
2.00
27%
3.69
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.85
1.12
Cesena xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
4%
24.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.12 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese's recent record stands at 11W 8D 7L from 26 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cesena, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 10L across 26 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.58 PPG, Cesena on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 5W 5D 3L from 13 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cesena's away record stands at 3W 2D 8L across 13 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cesena's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.31 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Cesena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Cesena in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 11W 8D 7L in their last 26 games (1.58 PPG), while Cesena have gone 9W 7D 10L in their last 26 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Cesena away?
Cremonese's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.54 PPG; Cesena away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and Cesena runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Cremonese
1
Draws
1
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Cesena?
From 3 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Cesena have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Cesena last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Cesena 2-2 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 69%, Cesena 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Cremonese) and 46% (Cesena).
On the defensive side: Cesena in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Cesena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Cremonese's games and 54% of Cesena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cremonese's recent games and 46% of Cesena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Cesena tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Cesena in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cesena defy the odds to beat Cremonese 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cesena beat Cremonese 1-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.73 xG and Cesena 1.12 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cesena outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.12 / defence 1.11 against Cesena attack 0.92 / defence 1.24, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 50% | Draw 27% | Cesena 23%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Cesena win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 46%, Cesena 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Cesena's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.58 PPG, Cesena 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cesena win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cesena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.