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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 28 as Carrarese welcome Cremonese to Stadio dei Marmi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie B games this season, Carrarese have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Carrarese have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadio dei Marmi — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.

Cremonese — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie B this season, Cremonese have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Form points away from home here. Cremonese's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Carrarese's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Carrarese, 1 for Cremonese and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Cremonese winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Carrarese trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Cremonese trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 41% versus Cremonese 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 41% | Cremonese 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 0.93 xG and Cremonese 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.947 / defence 1.159 | Cremonese attack 1.095 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.101. Data: 27 Carrarese games / 65 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Carrarese 23% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 46%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Cremonese 2.17. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 30% | Cremonese 40% BTTS from recent games.

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