Salernitana 1-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salernitana at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salernitana vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Salernitana and Frosinone meet at Stadio Arechi in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 February 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form
Salernitana (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salernitana at Stadio Arechi this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Frosinone have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Frosinone have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Salernitana 0W, Frosinone 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with Frosinone winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 55% versus Frosinone 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 56% | Frosinone 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.35 xG and Frosinone 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.951 / defence 1.113 | Frosinone attack 0.761 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.104. Data: 26 Salernitana games / 26 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 45% | Draw 31% | Frosinone 24%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Frosinone 4.17. Salernitana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salernitana at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Salernitana if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Salernitana 50% | Frosinone 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 45% | Draw 31% | Frosinone 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Salernitana 1.35 / Frosinone 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.951 / def 1.113 | Frosinone attack 0.761 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Salernitana (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Frosinone xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Frosinone kick off?
Salernitana vs Frosinone kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Frosinone?
Salernitana 1 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Salernitana vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Frosinone part of?
Salernitana vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 45% chance of winning, Frosinone a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Salernitana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Salernitana and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Frosinone?
Record (3 meetings): Salernitana 0W | Draws 1 | Frosinone 2W.
What form are Salernitana and Frosinone in?
Salernitana (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Frosinone (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Salernitana's attack rating (0.95) and Frosinone's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (0.76x) against Salernitana's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salernitana Win
45%
2.24
31%
3.21
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.29
0.94
Frosinone xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
6%
15.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Salernitana and 0.94 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Salernitana come into this having played 64 games, going 8W 18D 38L for 0.66 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 0.91 PPG from 64 outings (12W 22D 30L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.66 PPG for Salernitana against 0.91 for Frosinone. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Salernitana's home form reads 6W 7D 18L across 31 games on their own ground, a 0.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 0.65 points per game from 31 outings (3W 11D 17L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Salernitana are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.02 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 8W 18D 38L in their last 64 games (0.66 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 12W 22D 30L in their last 64 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Frosinone away?
Salernitana's home record (0.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 0.81 PPG; Frosinone away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Frosinone won 3-0 on 26 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salernitana have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Frosinone — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Salernitana
2
Draws
2
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 0, Frosinone have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Salernitana 1-1 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 64%, Frosinone 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Salernitana) and 45% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 32% of games; Frosinone in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Frosinone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Salernitana's games and 58% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Salernitana vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Salernitana's recent games and 45% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salernitana and Frosinone tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Salernitana and Frosinone share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salernitana and Frosinone finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.35 xG and Frosinone 0.94 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Frosinone attack 0.76 / defence 1.17, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 45% | Draw 31% | Frosinone 24%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 56%, Frosinone 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salernitana 0.66 PPG, Frosinone 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.